328
FXUS64 KLZK 301752
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1252 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A series of several upper lvl SWT within the southern stream will be
going over Arkansas throughout the short-term forecast period. On
Friday, a stronger signal of an approaching trof will pass over
Oklahoma nearing the Natural State.

At the sfc, Thursday into Friday Night looks to be an active period
of unsettled weather across Arkansas. A stationary boundary will be
positioned from the Texas Panhandle extending through Central Texas
and draped along the Gulf Coast regions of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and Florida. The proximity of this feature will begin to
bring rain and isolated thunderstorm chances back into the forecast
on Thursday afternoon with POPs increasing into Thursday
evening/Thursday night. A few CAMS have show a strong signal at a
weakening MCS entering the state along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border
on Thursday evening and tracking across the state while weakening
overall. The main hazard with any activity that does remain beefy
would be a strong to possible severe segment or that would contain
gusty winds of 60 mph.

On Friday into Friday night, widespread rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances will increase as the stationary boundary begins
to lift as a warm front throughout the day on Friday. At the moment,
latest model data indicates that a few severe wind gusts will be
possible across the southern 3/4ths of the state of Arkansas with
the greatest chance of a few severe wind gusts across southwestern
portions of Arkansas.

Overall, expect higher POP chances in the central and western
portions of Arkansas on Thursday afternoon/evening with POPs
increasing statewide as the stationary boundary lifts northward
across the state as a warm front on Friday into Friday night.

Temperatures over the short-term forecast period will remain near
climatological normals on Thursday with respect to both low and high
temperatures. Into Friday low temperatures will be near normal
climatological averages; however, high temperatures will be below
normal in locations that have seen prolonged rain-cooled air and
areas across eastern and southeastern Arkansas will experience high
temperatures near climatological normals for this time of the
year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Guidance continues to show a fairly progressive pattern through the
majority of the period before finally developing a ridge just to the
west of the forecast area with a subsequent downward trend in precip
chances. There remains a few timing differences with the individual
waves embedded in the prevailing flow but overall guidance is in
generally good agreement.

Period initiates with a fairly strong upper impulse/shortwave trough
over east central Missouri with a weaker wave along the AR/LA
border. Both features will justify high chance to likely pops early
Saturday before decreasing somewhat as the day progresses. Next
impulse comes in for Sunday afternoon/evening with some indications
of this evolving into a lower end MCS for Sunday night into early
Monday but confidence is far from certain.

Mainly low end rain chances will continue through the remainder of
the period as several additional waves ripple through the rather
moist and warm airmass over the region.

Meanwhile, low pressure systems will be dropping down the west coast
and developing over the northern Lakes. Upper level ridging develops
over the western high plains in response, placing the CWA on its
eastern periphery by the end of the period.

Overall temperatures look to average a few degrees below seasonal
averages through the period before spiking up somewhat towards the
conclusion of the period with the building ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conds wl prevail this aftn acrs the FA. CU field wl cont to
dvlp from aftn heating, esp acrs the SW part of the area where
higher sfc dewpoints reside. CAMS cont to show the remnants of
ongoing storms to the west of AR, could affect some of the central
terminals by this evening. Opted to go with VCTS at these sites
for now and see how things play out. MVFR conds wl return to most
areas later tngt and Fri as additional convection impacts the FA,
with some IFR conds possible Fri mrng.

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...44