779
FXUS64 KLZK 271936
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
236 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper level ridge over the SW US will be migrating eastward and
flattening out a bit, eventually bringing the center of the ridge
over Arkansas by Saturday.

At the surface, the remnant cold front that passed thru the area
yesterday will be moving back north as a warm front tomorrow and
tomorrow night, and on Saturday another cold front will be
approaching the area from the northwest. The front is expected to
enter the area in the extended term, but showers and thunderstorms
ahead of the boundary will result in increased chances for
precipitation across the north on Saturday.

All eyes are on the heat building back across the area tomorrow and
Saturday. While temps will start to increase notably tomorrow,
dewpoints will lag a bit, and heat indicies look as if they will be
below heat advisory criteria.

Saturday will be another story, however. The moisture will be back
in the wake of the warm front, and high temperatures will be in the
95-100 degree range across much of the forecast area. I am
anticipating that heat advisories will be required for much of the
area, and possibly an excessive heat warning for some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A brief break from the heat will be noted across parts of the state
Sun-Mon as a cold front slides south into the area. This front will
help trigger showers and thunderstorms Sunday, through the
afternoon/evening hours. This precip and associated cloud cover will
help temper forecast highs a bit, at least across northern parts of
the state. The front will actually push south of the state which
will provide slightly lower T/Td values on Monday. After that, the
heat returns.

Hot and humid conditions will be noted across the state through much
of the long term portion of the forecast as H500 ridging remains
parked over the region. This includes daily high temperatures in the
mid 90s F to around 100 F with Td values in the 60s/70s F. Most days
will see at least portions of the area requiring some sort of heat
related headline due to heat indices in excess of 105. HeatRisk
values will primarily be 3 (Major) or higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  93  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         69  96  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       65  93  73  95 /   0  10   0  30
Hot Springs AR    69  95  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  72  95  79  99 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     73  94  78  96 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      66  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  66  92  74  94 /   0  10   0  20
Newport AR        70  93  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     71  93  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   69  95  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         69  93  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      72  92  77  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....67