098
FXUS64 KMAF 261945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/northern
Chihuahua this afternoon, resulting in a warm afternoon of triple-
digit highs most locations.  Convection that developed overnight has
mostly diminished, but the HRRR redevelops convection early this
afternoon over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, where it`s
needed most.  Despite decent low level moisture out there, models
are pretty penurious on QPF, but beggars can`t be choosers, and
we`ll take what we can get.

This activity will slowly diminish overnight w/loss of daytime
heating.  Despite a relatively decrepit LLJ (~ 25 kts), partly
cloudy skies will retard radiational cooling, for another night of
unseasonably warm lows ~ 8-10 F above normal.

Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the
PacNW, and will begin flattening the ridge Thursday.  This portends
good news for those who don`t like the heat, as thicknesses will
come down a notch, and highs will be a degree or so cooler than
today`s. East-southeasterly upslope flow will once again develop
convection over the higher terrain, and this will continue into the
evening hours.

Thursday night looks like a carbon copy of tonight--a feeble LLJ
offset by a few clouds for overnight lows once again 8-10 F above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Not many changes to the forecast.

Friday, the upper ridge is forecast to be centered over Texas,
flattened due to an upper trough traversing the US/Canadian border.
As such, thicknesses will be maximized, resulting in the warmest day
this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10F above normal.  A heat
advisory or two may be needed. East-southeasterly upslope flow will
result in a chance of orographic convection over the higher terrain
during the afternoon/overnight. These areas continue to be our most
drought-stricken. Unfortunately, QPF looks meager, so lightning
starts remain a concern.  A 40+kt LLJ will keep lows Friday night
well-above normal.  In fact, a recurring nocturnal LLJ will keep
lows unseasonably warm throughout the extended.

Saturday, the ridge develops eastward, re-centering roughly over the
ArklaTex, and a downward trend in temperatures ensues as thicknesses
decrease.  From here on out, temperatures are a subtle matter of
where the ridge ends up each day.  Sunday is on track to be the
coolest day this forecast, when highs top out from at to 2-3 degrees
above normal.  Monday/Tuesday, a warming trend kicks in as
thicknesses increase slightly, with a slight cooldown Wednesday as
the ridge shifts more towards the southeast CONUS.  Diurnally-driven
convection will be possible each day over the higher terrain due to
upslope flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow, gusty at
times. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field this
afternoon, w/bases starting 4.5-5 kft AGL, and at the end of the
forecast period, w/bases 4.5-6 kft AGL. Convection will be
possible this afternoon/evening KCNM/KHOB/KPEQ, but chances are
too low to warrant a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78 104  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77 102  77 103 /  40  10  10  20
Dryden                   76 100  76 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75 101  76 104 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           71  93  74  95 /  50  20  20  30
Hobbs                    74 100  74 102 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    65  96  65  99 /  30  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     77 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   78 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     78 105  77 107 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44