Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 262339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262339
TXZ000-OKZ000-270115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma into Northeast
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262339Z - 270115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
The tornado threat is conditional, but present. Depending on
convective trends, a watch is possible.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating near an outflow boundary has promoted
storm development in the last 30 minutes. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE
2500-3000 J/kg) and 45-50 kts of effective shear will promote
organized storms. The primary hazards will be large hail (up to 2
inches in diameter in the strongest storms) and severe wind gusts.
The tornado risk does appear to be low, but is not zero. A mature
storm far enough east into the outflow, where LCLs are lower and
winds modestly more backed, could produce a tornado. The risk is
quite conditional, however. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain as
well given the departing mid-level trough to the east.
..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33969711 34429658 34319596 33449530 32759541 32619590
32719646 32869678 33969711