916
FXUS64 KMEG 282033
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
333 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot conditions will continue through Saturday as ridging continues
to amplify over the Mid-South. A cold front will bring increasing
rain chances to the region starting Saturday, with the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Missouri
Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. Hot and dry conditions resume
on Tuesday and look to persist through the latter part of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Latest water vapor analysis shows mid-level heights continue to
rise, as mid-level ridging amplifies over the region. Today`s
temperatures are expected to warm into the low 90s with dewpoint
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This has yielded heat index
values near or above 100 degrees area wide today. Heat index
values across portions of the MS delta are a bit warmer near 105
degrees, where a heat advisory remains in effect until 8pm CDT.

Temperatures on Saturday will be even hotter, as a mid-level
heights continue to build. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect
for areas in the MS Delta and west of the river, with a Heat
Advisory in effect elsewhere across the Mid-South. Dangerously hot
temperatures greater than 105 degrees will be common in the
advisory area with temperatures greater than 110 degrees in areas
under the Excessive Heat Warning. Therefore, be sure to know the
signs of heat related illness and limit your time outdoors.

Some breakdown of expansive ridging looks to occur starting late
Saturday, as a mid-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest. A
cold front associated with this trough will move toward the Mid-
South on Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase ahead
of this front with the possibility for some strong to severe
storms on Saturday night. Forecast soundings from CAM guidance
depicts elevated instability (~1500+ J/kg), rooted near 850mb that
will be coupled with around 30-40 knots of effective shear,
suggesting the potential for damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Missouri Bootheel
and northeastern Arkansas. Precipitation chances will continue
across the Mid-South on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the
Mid-South. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday and Monday,
though some areas across north Mississippi may still see
temperatures approaching the mid 90s.

Temperatures will quickly rebound on Tuesday with possible heat
headlines across portions of the Mississippi Delta region.
Wednesday and Thursday look even hotter with the potential for
more widespread heat headlines, though some of this may be
mitigated by increasing precipitation chances. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions and relatively light winds will persist through
most of the TAF period. Probabilistic guidance suggest the
potential for a temporary low stratus deck around sunrise at TUP.
Confidence is too low to include at this time.

ACH/CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     ARZ009-018-026-027-035-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ028-036.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ007-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>006-008-
     009-013>017-021>024.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ007-010-011-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...CJC