Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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681 FXUS64 KMEG 270838 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Brief "cool down" today, with temps becoming hot and humid once again this weekend and into much of next week. Isolated to scattered chances for thunderstorms continue each day, with the next widespread chance likely not coming until Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Surface low and frontal boundary that brought yesterday`s thunderstorms currently sits just to our south, allowing some "cooler" and drier air to move into the area. Boundary will slowly continue to sag southward today, but those across our southeastern counties could still see some scattered showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. Nonetheless, highs across the area will be closer to normal today, generally in the upper 80s. Surface winds will quickly become southerly overnight, allowing WAA and moisture to return to the area tomorrow and into the weekend. Could see some diurnally driven thunderstorm activity tomorrow and Saturday, but coverage will likely remain isolated to scattered. Temps will quickly rebound into the mid 90s Saturday with dew point temps in the mid 70s. As such, a Heat Advisory may be needed for much of the area and especially across the Delta. Sunday will start off similar to Saturday before a decaying MCS will push through. Still some question as to when the MCS will move through which will play a role in if any additional heat headlines will be needed or not for Sunday. Environment looks fairly similar to what we have seen the past few days, so won`t rule out a strong storm or two as the boundary moves through the area. Upper-level ridge will move across the region by Monday, aiding to knock PoPs back for a few days and allowing temps to warm back into the mid to upper 90s likely by Tuesday. This coupled with soupy dew point temperatures mean heat headlines could be needed once again into midweek. As for your way too early 4th of July forecast, things look wet for some and pretty toasty for all. Will see how things evolve over the next few days as more models come into range and leave it at that for now. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Conditions have lowered to MVFR at MEM and are expected to lower to MVFR at JBR/MKL over the next few hours. IFR conditions look to spread across TUP around 08Z. IFR are possible at MKL/MEM, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. Fog is expected to form over MKL/TUP and remain through the early morning hours along a cold frontal movement. As the sun rises, VFR conditions will return across all terminals. North/northeast winds look to gust up to 20 kts at JBR/MEM behind the aforementioned front. Otherwise, north/northeast winds will remain 5-10 kts across TAF sites. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...AEH