Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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278 FXUS62 KMFL 141836 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 236 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida, while a mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The plume of enhanced moisture which sat over South FL for the past couple of days has shifted southward this morning, with the main bulk of it now sitting over the FL Keys. This has allowed for drier mid-level air to filter in over the area as shown by the ACARS and 12Z MFL soundings. As a result, much of the convection early this morning has been confined to the FL Keys/Straits and southern portions of the CWA. This will be the prevailing pattern of behavior for the rest of the day as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across South FL. Coverage will not be as widespread as previous days, but increased daytime heating as a result of decreased cloud coverage will help destabilize the atmosphere enough to support thunderstorm development and some heavy downpours. Guidance suggests some areas could see between 1-2" of rain, with localized higher amounts possible through the day which could trigger concerns for flash flooding, especially for vulnerable areas that received several inches of rain over the past several days. Heading into Saturday, the mid level trough axis will remain near the region. At the surface, while Invest AL90 will move further away to the northeast in the western Atlantic, South Florida will still be close enough to the moisture tail to support higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The latest guidance still shows PWAT values ranging between 2.0 and 2.3 inches throughout the day on Saturday. This is more than enough moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development as the day progresses. The highest chances will remain in the afternoon hours and heavy downpours will still be possible with the strongest thunderstorms. This would create the potential for additional flooding concerns depending on where the stronger storms set up. This will continue to be monitored as the day progresses. High temperatures today and tomorrow could reach the upper 80s areas across the northern CWA where cloud coverage will be most limited, with temperatures further south where the rain chances are maximized reaching the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Models depict a synoptic pattern dominated by upper level troughiness over the area, while a mid level trough/low complex deepens across the E CONUS. Globals/ensembles show fair agreement in pushing the trough/low into the west Atlantic during the weekend, which will result in a gradual shift of winds over SoFlo to a more easterly flow by Sunday. This weather pattern shift should bring the onset of closer-to-normal conditions for this time of the year and provide a break from the rain event of previous days. Sunday should still see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, then drier air finally begins to filter across the area during the first half of next week. With the aforementioned trough/low migrating further away from the region, the overall shower/storm activity should decrease across SoFlo, but with enough PWAT/lapse rate profiles remaining in place for scattered coverage to return each afternoon. Monday through mid week, models show a sfc high pressure building across the peninsula and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the aforementioned more typical summertime weather regime of afternoon seabreeze activity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor interior areas as the east coast seabreezes develop early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. But can`t rule out a few strong storms affecting any of the Atlantic metro areas at times. Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards the middle of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 MVFR/IFR will be likely across East Coast terminals over the next couple of hours as scattered SHRA/TSRA roll through. Southwesterly winds will prevail, but an easterly sea breeze may try to impinge on the East Coast sites once convection clears out. Light and variable winds overnight with mostly dry conditions, before a return to southwesterly flow and VCTS tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A moderate to fresh southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters today. These winds will become gentle to moderate for the upcoming weekend and they will gradually shift and become east northeasterly on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible today and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and waves may be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 86 78 88 / 40 60 30 60 West Kendall 74 88 75 90 / 30 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 76 89 78 90 / 40 60 20 60 Homestead 76 87 77 89 / 30 50 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 85 78 87 / 40 60 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 86 78 88 / 40 60 30 60 Pembroke Pines 77 89 78 90 / 40 60 20 60 West Palm Beach 75 87 76 88 / 40 60 20 60 Boca Raton 76 87 78 88 / 40 60 30 60 Naples 78 87 77 91 / 60 60 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC/ATV LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...ATV