743
FXUS62 KMFL 161906
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Ridging begins to build over the southeastern US today as a
surface high expands across the eastern seaboard towards Florida.
As a result, a breezy easterly wind regime sets up across our
region today. While much of the moisture plume has shifted
westward over the Gulf of Mexico at this point, PWAT values over
our area remain somewhat elevated (in the range of 1.9-2.1, which
is climatologically high for this time of year). This could lead
to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the
sea breeze boundaries later today but chances remain pretty
limited by the gradual intrusion of dry air at the lower levels
(PoPs 20-30%). Coverage will be maximized across interior and
southwest Florida.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday as ridging
and the surface high expand and strengthen. This will help to
increase the pressure gradient across South Florida allowing for
easterly winds to increase bring breezy conditions to the region
heading into the afternoon hours. This will also usher in some drier
air in the mid levels which will cause the PWAT values to fall to
more climatological values. Isolated to scattered showers could
still pop up along the sea breeze boundaries during the early
afternoon with coverage favored over the interior and southwest FL.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the upper 80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Some uncertainty enters the forecast mid-week as a ridge of high
pressure develops over the eastern seaboard of the United States.
There are a pair of features that the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring for potential development. The first feature is located
in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to begin the period and could
gradually develop as it moves westward or west-northwestward.
While the moisture from this create concerns for some portions of
the Gulf coast, our region could see drier air as we remain well
to the east under the influence of high pressure. The second area
being monitored is in the southwestern Atlantic where a trough or
low is expected to materialize in much of the guidance by mid-
week.

Forecast confidence begins to nosedive going from Wednesday to
Thursday as there is a quite a spread in potential solution with
some solutions showing generally unsettled weather with the trough
or low approaching the southeastern United States Thursday into
Friday. A few items to watch are the potential development of the
feature in question, how the high pressure is pinched back by it,
and how much rainfall some previously saturated portions of
southern Florida see this week. The potential for some drier
periods of time will help with drainage though some moisture could
return as soon as late Tuesday/early Wednesday as an area of
tropical moisture rounds the high ahead of any potential
disturbance.

Warm temperatures do remain in the forecast through most of the
week with summer taking hold over South Florida. For the latest
outlook on any potential tropical development, check out the
National Hurricane Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected for the period with breezy
easterly winds prevailing. A few isolated showers and storms could
develop this afternoon, however, they should remain away from the
terminals as they push towards the interior. The exception to this
will be at KAPF, where showers and thunderstorms may develop near
the terminal heading into the mid to late afternoon hours.Light
and variable winds again overnight before a return to more
moderate easterly flow Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Moderate easterly wind flow across the local waters today will
become moderate to fresh heading into the early portion of the week.
Easterly wind flow will continue to strengthen heading into the
middle of the week which could lead to the potential for hazardous
marine conditions during this time frame across the Atlantic and
Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the local waters each day. Winds and seas could be locally
higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The rip current risk across the Atlantic coast beaches will
gradually increase for the early to middle portion of the week as
onshore flow increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  88  79  88 /  10  30  30  60
West Kendall     77  89  77  89 /  10  40  30  60
Opa-Locka        78  89  79  89 /  10  30  20  60
Homestead        79  88  79  88 /  10  40  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  86  79  86 /  10  30  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  79  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  60
Pembroke Pines   80  90  79  90 /  10  30  20  60
West Palm Beach  78  88  78  88 /  10  20  20  60
Boca Raton       79  88  79  88 /  10  20  30  60
Naples           77  91  77  93 /  20  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...ATV