Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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121 FXUS62 KMHX 271614 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1214 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move into the region today and stall just south of the area tonight. High pressure then builds in behind this feature from the north late week and into the weekend with another front approaching late Sunday through Monday. High pressure once again builds over the area from the north on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1215 AM Thu... Key Messages for today: 1) The combination of hot temperatures (highs in the low to mid 90s) and high humidity levels (dewpoints in the 70s) will result in dangerous Heat Index values around 105 degrees from late morning through the afternoon. 2) The atmosphere will become very unstable this afternoon resulting in the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (especially this afternoon east of Highway 17). Some of the storms could become severe with damaging wind gusts and hail to around 1" the main threats. Torrential downpours could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas. While the sfc trough that pushed through the area this morning has mostly moved offshore, several additional boundaries are evident on satellite imagery across the region, including sea/river breezes, a lingering trough across the central portion of the FA, and a slow moving cold front pushing into US 64 corridor. These boundaries will be the focus for storms this afternoon and are already seeing a line of thunderstorms develop along the cold front. A marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storm continues with strong instability already in place with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and SBCAPE around 3000-3500 J/kg, however shear remains meager at around 20-30 kt at best. The forecast remains in good shape with minimal changes for the mid-day update with greatest chances for strong storms between 2-8pm today. The temps are currently in the mid 80s to around 90 with heat indices around 96-102 and will maintain the heat advisory across much of the coastal plain with heat peaking early to mid afternoon before greatest convection develops. Previous discussion...Active weather is on tap for the next 18 hours as a weak cold front moves into eastern NC this afternoon then stalls just south of the area overnight. Ahead of the front deep southerly flow will continue to usher a hot and humid airmass into the Carolinas. Just how how it gets today has become a little more uncertain as the 00Z MOS has come in cooler with highs especially the ECMWF (upper 80s to lower 90s). This may be resulting from the models thinking that debris clouds associated with weakening convection currently moving into the northern portion of the area will lingering and reducing heating. The NBM is the warmest temp guidance (low to mid 90s) and was used in this forecast package and resulted in peak Heat Index values around 105 degrees this afternoon. Decided to not expand the Heat Advisory north where clouds will be most likely to persist and produce slightly cooler high temps. This morning the models are in pretty good agreement with the convection now entering the northern portion of eastern NC early this morning. This activity will move southeast across the northern portion of the area (mainly north of Highway 264) this morning with an ending time around 15Z. Then the atmosphere will become increasingly buoyant this afternoon with ML CAPES around 2500 J/kg resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Shear will be a little weaker ( around 20 kt) than with the severe event this past Mon. The lack of shear may be compensated by water loaded downdrafts as PW values are forecast to exceed 2". Expecting pulsey multi-cell clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail to around 1". In addition torrential downpours will lead to localized poor drainage flooding. The high res models are indicating the potential for 2-3" rainfall amounts in persistent downpours. Storms should begin to blossom 17-19Z with the best coverage expected east of Highway 17. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Thu...The strongest convection should be winding down by 00Z with any lingering shower and thunderstorm activity ending by midnight as the front sags southward and drier northerly flow develops across the area. Could see patchy fog as skies clear and winds becalm calm. Lows are projected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and warmer low to mid 70s in the beach communities. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thurs... Once again the heat and humidity will be the main story in the long term to start as high pressure ridging builds overhead this weekend. Heat related impacts will be a threat most afternoons through Sunday, with the most oppressive heat potential both Saturday and Sunday. Scattered diurnal activity is expected Friday through Sunday, with better chances for precip arriving Sunday night and into Monday as another front moves in. Expecting dry conditions from Tuesday into the end of the period. Friday... No significant changes to the forecast as a cold front will be pushing offshore Fri morning and stalling. Behind this front a marginally cooler/drier airmass will try to build in but will not be very successful as humid conditions will persist through the day. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible Friday afternoon as some instability and forcing from sea/river/sound breezes will be in place across ENC and as a result have kept SChc to CHc PoPs across the region with the highest chances over the coastal plain. Slightly cooler temperatures expected Friday behind the front as high temps get into the upper 80s to low 90s, but with humidity sticking around, it will feel like its about 95 to 100 F outside. Saturday through Monday... The heat and humidity return in full force this weekend as high pressure ridging restrengthens over the area. High temps will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast and OBX to the mid to upper 90s across the Coastal Plain. Combined with the high humidity across ENC heat indices will reach 100 to potentially 110 this weekend. With lows only getting down into the 70s each night, there will not be much relief overnight either resulting in an increased threat for excessive heat. Otherwise diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible on Sat with increased precip chances on Sunday afternoon through Monday with the approach of a cold front. This cold front will track across the region on Monday with the precip threat gradually ending from northwest to southeast Mon night. Given the forecasted cloudcover and precip chances on Mon temps will also be lower with Highs only getting into the 80s. Tuesday through midweek...Behind this front next week the heat and humidity looks to break finally with dry conditions and near normal temps expected. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 630 AM Thu...A period of mainly MVFR ceilings is expected through about 14Z this morning then our attention turns to the toward the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon. Some of these storms could become severe with winds gusts to 50 kt, large hail and torrential downpours producing occasional sub VFR conditions. Most of this activity will be east of the TAF sites by 00Z. The combination of wet soils and radiational cooling could result in patchy fog formation with sub VFR conditions after 6Z as winds become calm. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 345 AM Thurs... Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast across ENC on Fri and Sat with some periods of sub-VFR conditions possible each afternoon and evening. Another cold front will arrive late Sun and bring an increased chance of sub-VFR conditions through Monday before VFR conditions potentially return on Tuesday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 630 AM Thu...SCAs continue for the sounds and northern waters through 12Z. SSW winds continue 10-20 kt, gusting to 25 kt across the northern waters and sounds early this morning. These winds are forecast to diminish to 10-15 kt gusting to 20 kt around 12Z this morning and continue through the afternoon. Tonight winds will diminish to around 10 kt then become NE behind the weak cold front forecast to cross the waters overnight. Seas will be 2-4 ft today and 2-3 ft tonight. Strong thunderstorms develop this afternoon into early evening, with strong winds above 34 kt and hail possible. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 345 AM Thurs... Decent boating conditions forecast through Sat before a cold front tracks across our waters Sun night into Monday bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as well as elevated winds and seas. As a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the north on Fri, northeast to easterly winds at 5-15 kts and 2 to 4 ft seas will persist across our waters Fri into Fri night. As high pressure ridging gradually slides offshore winds will turn to a SE`rly direction on Sat. Winds will continue to gradually turn Sat night into Sun to a SW`rly direction while also increasing to 10-20 kts as a cold front approaches from the west bringing our next threat for unsettled conditions across the waters Sun night into Mon. Seas will remain around 2 to 4 ft through the rest of the period, though would not be shocked to see some 5 ft seas near the Gulf Stream waters Sun night into Mon as the front track across the area. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ045>047-080- 081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/SK SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...RCF/RJ AVIATION...JME/RCF MARINE...JME/RCF