418
FXUS62 KMHX 300033
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
833 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions persist Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front will move through the area Monday morning
with high pressure building back into the area from the north on
Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build back in over the
second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...No major changes with the forecast.
Showers have dissipated this evening with a loss of daytime
heating.

As of 4 PM Sat...Widely scattered showers primarily
across the coastal plain late this afternoon will dissipate this
evening with loss of heating. Haven`t seen much lightning
despite MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg likely due to limited shear
and mid-level subsidence. Still cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm through the remainder of the afternoon. Generally
dry conditions expected through the remainder of the overnight
but could see an isolated shower across the coastal waters
skirting the coast, mainly after midnight. Steamy conditions
persist overnight with lows in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM Saturday...No major changes with the forecast for
this update. Bumped up PoPs a notch for the coastal plain west
of hwy 17 in the evening as guidance continues to be in
agreement on high coverage showers and thunderstorms developing
ahead of and along the lee trough.


As of 430 PM Sat...A mid-level
shortwave and attendant cold front will pushing across the Mid-
Atlantic on Sunday. A moist and unstable airmass will persist
ahead of the front allowing for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop with daytime heating with primary
forcing through mid afternoon along the sea breeze with storms
for the most part remaining sub-severe as shear will continue to
be meager. However, a more organized line of thunderstorms is
progged to develop along the lee trough across the piedmont and
advance toward ENC through the afternoon. There are some timing
differences when this line will reach ENC but could reach
western counties by late afternoon. A few storms would become
severe with damaging wind gusts from wet microbursts being the
primary severe threat and SPC has all of ENC in a marginal risk
(1 of 5) for severe storms. With PW values in excess of 2"
storms could also produce torrential rainfall with localized
flooding possible in poor drainage and low lying areas.

Moist southerly flow will bring hot and humid conditions across
the region with highs reaching the mid 90s inland and upper 80s
to around 90 along the coast. With dewpoints in the mid 70s,
the heat index peak around 105-107 degrees away from the coast
and have issued a Heat Advisory for all but immediate coastal
zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM Sat...The start of the long term period will be
rather unsettled as a cold front approaches ENC on Sunday and
eventually tracks across the region on Monday. This front will
bring the threat for shower and thunderstorm activity mainly
Sunday night into Monday. However, this front will also give us
a brief respite from the heat and humidity early in the week.
High pressure then settles in from the north and west on Tue and
remains the main weather feature into the end of the week
bringing a return of hot and humid conditions to ENC by late
next week.

Sunday night and Monday...Ridging begins to break down in
advance of an incoming positively tilted trough on Sunday.
Associated cold front will approach ENC and then track across
the region Mon morning bringing more widespread precip with rain
and thunderstorm activity ending from NW to SE Mon afternoon.
SBCAPES will peak around 1500-2500 J/kg Sunday afternoon with
a prefrontal surface trough promoting lift there will be an
isolated severe threat across ENC into the evening. Damaging
winds, torrential rainfall, and small hail will be the primary
concern within the strongest storms. The limiting factors will
be the lack of strong forcing and weak wind shear as deep layer
shear will generally remain below 20 kts.

A marginal severe environment will remain in place overnight
Sunday night. Instability will generally remain around 500-1000
J/kg and while shear will remain weak (generally 15-25 kts at
most) the front will provide some stronger forcing allowing for
a continued damaging wind threat within the strongest storms. In
addition, with PWATs at 2+ inches and an expected slow storm
motion, heavy rainfall will also be possible. Latest guidance
suggest widespread 1-2 inch rainfall totals between Sun and Mon
with localized amounts in excess of 3+ inches possible bringing
a threat for isolated localized flash flooding anywhere
thunderstorms train over each other or remain stationary.

Lows Sunday night get down into the 70s with high temps on
Monday not getting much higher, only into the low to mid 80s as
widespread cloudcover and ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity
limit heating on Monday.

Tuesday into the end of next week... Not much change in the forecast
from Tuesday onwards. Behind the aforementioned front, high
pressure builds in from the north and west and remains over the
Eastern Seaboard into the end of the week bringing mainly dry
weather to ENC though we may start seeing an increase in precip
chances by Fri. In addition to the dry weather a brief respite
from the heat is forecast on Tue and Wed with a return to hot
and humid conditions later next week as a warming trend
commences with heat related impacts becoming increasingly
likely to end the workweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...Generally VFR conditions through the
overnight as light winds will preclude fog development. However,
sufficient low level moisture is in place that we could see
sub-VFR stratus develop tonight and also during the morning as
LCLs rise. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible from late morning through the afternoon bringing brief
sub-VFR conditions. A more organized and widespread line of
prefrontal convection is expected to move into the region late
afternoon that could bring thunderstorms with frequent
lightning, damaging wind gusts and torrential rain.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Sat... No significant changes in the aviation
forecast as sub VFR conditions are becoming increasingly likely
Sun night through Mon as a cold front tracks across the region
bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. VFR
conditions return Tues into Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 400 PM Sat...A cold front will approach the waters through
the short term. Sly winds around 10-15 kt will continue through
Sunday morning then increase to 15-20 kt in the afternoon as the
front gets closer. Seas will continue around 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 4 PM Sat...Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be likely Sun evening bringing a chance for locally
enhanced winds and seas within any storm that tracks over our
inland and coastal waters. Front will then track across the
region on Mon ending precip chances from north to south and
allowing winds to shift to a N`rly direction behind the front at
15-20 kts Mon morning with winds gradually easing down to 10-15
kts and becoming NE`rly by Tue as high pressure ridge once
again extends across the area from the north. Winds will ease
further Tue night into Wed down to 5-10 kts and continue to veer
to an E to SE direction as ridging gradually pushes offshore.
Seas will generally remain around 2-4 ft through this timeframe
though 5 ft seas will be possible near the Gulf Stream waters
Mon.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/RJ
SHORT TERM...SK/RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF/RJ
MARINE...SK/RCF