Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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591 FXUS62 KMLB 281740 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Showers and storms moving across ECFL this afternoon, with increasing coverage forecast through the remainder of today, especially across the coastal terminals south of the Cape. VCTS at most sites between 18-03Z, with TEMPOs in for MVFR conditions due to TSRA between 18-23Z. Activity will diminish across the terminals after 03Z, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Winds pick back up out of the ENE and become more easterly as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Another afternoon of showers and storms is forecast for tomorrow, with VCSH/VCTS starting as early as 17Z. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Scattered shower and isolated lightning storms are streaming onshore of the west coast of Florida this morning. This activity is pushing eastward around 10 mph, and moving into ECFL as of 1030 AM, mainly across Lake/Volusia counties. The Bermuda high axis will shift slightly northward into south Florida today, resulting in the east coast sea breeze forming and pushing a little farther inland today. The 10Z XMR sounding shows a somewhat moist profile, with PW value of 1.75", however there is some drier air in the mid to upper levels. Forecast PW values increase into this afternoon (PW values ranging form 2.0-2.3"), which with daytime heating, will support scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms to develop this afternoon and early evening. Have maintained higher coverage of PoPs (60-70 percent) this afternoon and early evening, with the greatest coverage of storms occurring along any boundary collision from the sea breeze and outflow boundaries, which look to occur west of the I-95 corridor across east central FL. Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40-45 mph, and heavy downpours. Some storms may be strong. Despite the weakening westerly steering flow through the day, storms are expected to move back towards the coast and offshore through late afternoon/evening. Hot and muggy conditions persist with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-107 degrees. Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to rain and storm chances into tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Today-Tonight...Relatively light offshore flow around 5-10 knots will become E/SE into the afternoon up to around 10 knots closer to the coast as sea breeze forms and moves inland. Winds then veer to the S/SW into tonight, remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas will range from 1-3 feet. Main concern for boaters will be the potential for some storms to move back toward the coast and just offshore into the afternoon and evening. Frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds will occur with any stronger storms. Saturday-Tuesday...Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic moves back northward across the waters into the weekend and early next week. Southerly flow each morning will become onshore into the afternoon as sea breeze will be able to form each day and push inland. Sea breeze generated showers and storms each afternoon should largely remain over land areas, but isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible over the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 76 91 / 40 60 40 40 MCO 77 91 76 91 / 30 70 30 60 MLB 76 90 76 90 / 40 60 30 40 VRB 75 90 76 90 / 40 50 30 40 LEE 78 93 77 93 / 30 70 30 60 SFB 76 92 76 92 / 30 70 30 60 ORL 77 93 77 92 / 30 70 30 60 FPR 75 90 76 90 / 40 50 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Watson AVIATION...Tollefsen