603
FXUS64 KMOB 271157
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions should generally prevail throughout the day and
into the evening hours for much of the local area, although some
localized spots near the coast could see MVFR ceilings linger
through the morning hours prior to rising to VFR by the afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through much of the day today. Expect brief reductions in
visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Another
round of showers and storms look to develop along the coast
overnight tonight. Once again, VFR conditions should remain
prevalent, although a few spots near the coast could lower to
MVFR. /96


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An active and rather complicated
convective pattern is expected to continue through the near term
period as an upper-level trough lingers overhead before dissipating
late Friday. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary, currently
draped across central Mississippi and into northern Alabama will
slowly drift southward throughout the day today, likely
reaching/entering our northwestern counties by the mid to late
afternoon hours. A weak low appears to be developing along this
boundary somewhere near the northern Mississippi/Alabama border and
will also drift southward throughout the day today. As the upper
trough (and flow aloft) begins to weaken, the boundary and its
associated low feature should become stationary before dissipating
sometime tonight or Friday morning. Abundant, deep moisture will
continue to stream into the local area, with PWATs exceeding 2
inches across most, if not all of the area.

Storms are already beginning to fire up over the marine zones and
across coastal counties along and south of I-10 this morning. This
is due to the combination of forcing from the upper trough, abundant
moisture, and the highly unstable environment that is in place. In
fact, even with a lack of diurnal heating (due to the time of day),
SBCAPE values this morning over this particular region range from
2500-3500 J/kg thanks to temperatures in the low 80s and dew points
in the upper 70s. Although severe storms are not expected, gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible with
some of these storms. Additionally, the combination of very strong
low-level CAPE values and surface vorticity can be conducive for the
development of waterspouts over our coastal marine zones. As these
storms begin producing outflow boundaries, expect storms to spread
inland by the late morning and early afternoon hours, especially for
areas along and east of the I-65 corridor, where the best upper-
level forcing is located. These storms should gradually wane over
time before the next round initiates over our northwestern zones as
the surface boundary and antecedent low approaches the area. These
storms should push to the south through the late afternoon and early
evening hours (this time generally west of I-65) but once again,
with little to no shear in place, severe weather is not expected,
except for a few stronger pulse-type storms capable of producing
gusty winds that may develop along boundary collisions.

After a brief lull in overall activity during the late evening
hours, the next round of showers and storms look to develop during
the early morning hours tomorrow across our coastal counties and
marine zones, similar to today. Storms will once again spread inland
via outflow boundaries and the sea breeze during the late morning
and into the afternoon hours. Severe storms are once again not
expected.

With the earlier development of convection today, highs are expected
to only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Although
Heat Advisories will not be necessary for today, heat indices will
still rise into the 98-103 degree range thanks to dew points in the
mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight will remain very mild, with
temperatures only dropping into the low 70s inland and the mid to
upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s
across much of the area, with heat indices ranging from 100 to 106
degrees. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is now in effect through
the period due to increased southwesterly flow leading to increased
surf heights. /96

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper high pressure will be ridging into our area from the west
into the early part of next week. The upper high pressure will
drift east by late in the period, being centered MS/AL. With the
center of the upper ridge situated to our west over the ArkLaTex
region through the weekend, a rather deep northerly flow pattern
will persists over our region with some weak shortwave energy
likely rounding the eastern periphery of the upper high. This
upper energy, combined with a dissipating weak surface frontal
boundary over the interior southeast CONUS, along with daytime
heating and instability, will allow for scattered to locally
numerous showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and
evening hours. During the early to middle part of next week,
surface high pressure will be ridging in from the east,
maintaining the moist low level airmass across the region. This
will help maintain a chance for scattered showers and storms each
day into the early to middle part of next week, but with the upper
ridge building coverages will be a little less than in the first
part of the period. Daytime highs through Sunday will primarily
be in the low to mid 90s, with afternoon heat indices in the
100-105 degree range. Monday and especially into Tuesday and
Wednesday, daytime highs increase into the middle 90s for most
locations, with heat indices likely above 108 degrees in many
areas. With this, we will potentially be looking at another round
of Heat Advisories for at least portions of our area by Monday and
then into Wednesday of next week. Nighttime lows will continue to
be mainly in the low to mid 70s through the period for most
locations, but upper 70s along the immediate coast. 12/13

MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A moderate westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to
continue through Friday. Exercise caution headlines are in place for
today for our offshore waters. Winds will decrease through Saturday
with a light diurnal flow pattern developing through early next
week. Showers and storms are expected each morning. A few stronger
storms will be possible, capable of producing gusty winds and
waterspouts. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  76  90  76  91  76  93  75 /  70  60  70  40  60  20  70  40
Pensacola   87  77  89  79  91  78  93  78 /  80  70  80  50  70  30  70  50
Destin      86  79  88  81  90  80  91  80 /  80  60  80  50  60  30  70  50
Evergreen   88  73  92  73  91  73  93  73 /  70  50  80  30  70  20  70  30
Waynesboro  90  73  92  73  93  73  94  73 /  70  30  50  20  50  20  70  20
Camden      88  73  91  73  90  72  92  73 /  70  40  60  20  60  20  70  30
Crestview   88  74  91  74  93  74  95  74 /  80  50  80  30  70  20  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob