Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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640 FXUS63 KMPX 161701 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1201 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs in the mid-upper 80s to continue through Wednesday. - A more active pattern is expected for the second half of this week into the weekend with the best chances for rain right now coming Thursday/Thursday night and Friday night into Saturday. - Heavy rain is currently the greatest potential hazard, though a severe potential is slowly starting to emerge for the two active periods as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Conditions definitely feel muggy when stepping outside of the forecast office early this morning. Even with much of Minnesota and Wisconsin seeing mostly clear skies, current temperatures remain in the upper-60 and low-70s with dew points in the mid-60s. Off to our west, a mid-level low is producing a few thunderstorms across the Dakotas. This low is expected to track to the NNE throughout the course of today which will interact with a stationary boundary located southern Manitoba. As this interaction occurs, development for rain showers and storms are expected across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Hi-Res guidance seems to agree with this thinking thus removed PoPs across central and southern MN and western WI for this afternoon. With high pressure continuing to maintain its grip over the Great Lakes region, skies should be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 80s for both today and Tuesday. CAMs are starting to pick up on some potential pre-dawn convection especially across western MN Tuesday morning. May need to increase PoPs should trends continue over the next few hourly runs. We still expect this dry pattern to shift by mid-week as h5 ridging to our east erodes and allows low pressure building near the Rockies. One noticeable change from the last two runs of the NBM has been the timing and coverage for rainfall on Wednesday. Coverage has decreased and timing has slowed more to Wednesday night into Thursday. Depending on this lows track and the timing, some storms may feature a small chance of severe weather given instability and shear on the forecast soundings. Rain and storm chances continue on Friday and into the weekend but will need to wait until guidance has better agreement on track before discussing direct impacts. What is known now is confidence continues to increase that this weekend could potentially be a wet one. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to cool back down to at or just below normal late this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Little change in the weather is expected over the next 24 to 30 hours, hence all the one-line TAFs. The one bit of uncertainty comes with the potential for some shra/tsra late tonight into Tuesday morning. We saw something similar this morning from eastern Neb through eastern SoDak and the HRRR is indicating something similar could happen tonight from western IA up into southwest MN. Low confidence on that happening at the moment, but will be something to keep an eye on over the next couple of TAF updates. KMSP...30 hours of south winds and VFR conditions, enjoy! /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-20 kts. THU...VFR. Evening SHRA/TSRA. Wind S 15G25 kts. FRI...VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...MPG