528
FXUS63 KMPX 141117
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
517 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures persist today, but much milder air arrives
  mid to late week.

- Another surge of Arctic air arrives this weekend, continuing
  into next week.

- Small chance for snow in WI Wednesday, otherwise no
  precipitation is expected through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Cold air advection continues this morning. Temperatures have
fallen into the teens below zero across western MN and nearing
10 below in eastern MN while winds remain 10-15 mph. This has
resulted in wind chills of -25 to -35. A Cold Weather Advisory
is in effect for most of our MN counties until mid morning. High
pressure will be centered over western and southern MN by this
afternoon and winds will drop off accordingly. Highs will remain
cold in the single digits, but clear skies across the Upper
Midwest will provide ample sunshine.

The high will drift southeast to the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
warm air advection will start bringing in a much milder Pacific
airmass. A low pressure system over Hudson Bay and a warm front
stretching south into the mid Missouri Valley will bring
increased cloud cover to the region, and the moisture depth may
be deep enough in WI to allow for some very light snow or
flurries to develop in the Wednesday afternoon and evening. By
Thursday and Friday, highs will be in the mid 30s to low 40s as
the Pacific airmass settles in.

Another system traversing southern Canada will bring an Arctic
front south Friday afternoon and a very cold airmass will
overtake much of the country later this weekend. Temperatures
will be about 20-25 degrees below normal and may not climb above
zero Sunday and Monday. A 1050+ mb high building south into the
Rockies will keep winds elevated through the next cold snap and
hazardous wind chills are likely until the airmass begins to
modify Tuesday. Absent a typical snowpack (we may not have any
on the ground by the weekend), and upper air temperature
anomalies not being too extreme, this cold snap will not be as
severe as such a synoptic setup may typically bring for mid to
late January.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

At EAU, a deck of clouds near 3000 feet over northern WI will
move south, potentially clipping the terminal. Currently, have
conditions remaining VFR in EAU`s TAF with skies remaining
scattered. However, satellite trends will need to be monitored
to see if MVFR becomes necessary. Elsewhere, VFR is expected the
entire period with mainly high clouds before a few lower clouds
begin to arrive in western MN early Wednesday morning.
Northwesterly winds range from 5-10 knots through this
afternoon, before becoming calm/variable tonight as surface high
pressure slides through. A west to east flip to southerly winds
is expected during Wednesday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Anoka-
     Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Douglas-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-
     Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-
     Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...CTG