Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 151218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

.Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 610 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Abnormally mild temperatures will continue today as a
south/southwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest. The
highest readings will occur along the Buffalo Ridge in west
central Minnesota, and across central Minnesota as the thermal
ridge moves overhead today. I wouldn`t be surprised to see
forecast temperatures too low along the Buffalo Ridge where
current temperatures are still above freezing. The current
forecast has highs around 45 degrees along this ridge which may
be more in line of 50 degrees if enough mixing develops.
Elsewhere, highs will average 10 to 15 degrees above normal. A
frontal boundary will move across the region overnight. Winds will
shift to the west/northwest on Sunday which will bring down
temperatures a few degrees compared to today. It will still be
mild for mid December as the air mass moving overhead is more
Pacific oriented vs. Canadian or Arctic.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

Monday will be the coolest day in the extended period as highs
drop back to slightly above normal compared to 10 to 15 degrees
above today.

There remains no signs of any significant or impactful weather
over the next 7 days. The mean flow aloft will be progressive but
remaining split. The southern jet will be the most active with
another storm system developing across the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley by midweek. This system will be somewhat similar to the
current storm impacting the southern tier of the nation. Only a
slight change pass next week as more Canadian air begins to
filter southward as the northern jet streams moves further south.
By next weekend, and into the holiday week, temperatures are more
likely be seasonable in the teens and 20s for highs compared to
the 30s and 40s this week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

VFR conditions with light southeast winds becoming more westerly
overnight. Could see some patchy fog after midnight.


VFR conditions with light southeast winds becoming more westerly
overnight. Could see some patchy fog after midnight.

Mon...VFR. Winds light and variable.
Tue...VFR. Wind SW 10G20 kts.
Wed...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible late. Wind SW at 10 kts.




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