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000
FXUS63 KMPX 010919
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...
- The first half of December looks mild with no significant
  systems in sight.

- Chances for some light precipitation east of I-35 Saturday
  night, and region-wide late Monday and Monday night. Some
  nuisance snow accumulation is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery with
surface ops and RAP13 analysis showed mostly clear skies and
light winds across the region, which allowed temperatures to
fall into the teens at several locations. Meanwhile down to the
south IR imagery showed a developing storm system with
precipitation across northern Missouri, southern Iowa, and
Illinois. For the rest of today, the storm system will remain
well south and east of the region. Afternoon temperatures will
warm into the mid 30s as winds remain light, but could reach the
upper 30s if clouds are slow to move in and skies remain more
sunny.

On Saturday evening, a secondary shortwave trough will lift up
from the southwest, and low level warm air advection should lead
to clouds and perhaps some snow across far eastern MN and
western WI Saturday night. The forcing with this system is
weak, and more focused to the south, but forecast soundings do
show several hours of saturation, so there should be some snow
falling, but any amounts will likely be less than an inch.

The next system is another shortwave trough embedded in
northwest flow that will move across the region late Monday into
Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, so could see
a rain/snow mix. Amounts will be light, generally less than a
tenth of an inch of precipitation, but if the trends continue
would expect precipitation chances to increase given the
synoptic set up.

Otherwise, the lack of snow cover will allow temperatures to
continue to be on the mild side for at least the next week, and
probably the following week as well based on the latest CPC
outlook.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Little to no aviation weather concerns through this period.
Winds generally light and variable with an overall northerly
direction tonight. Winds will shift to the east, but remain
light on Friday. Clear skies will be the norm tonight, but high
VFR ceilings are expected to return on Friday.

KMSP... No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind E 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR/MVFR, chc -SN. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC