Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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040 FXUS63 KOAX 082048 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 348 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers expected through the evening. - Very pleasant weather expected for Sunday and Monday with highs near 80 and plenty of sunshine. - Next week brings a forecast for the hottest temperatures of the year so far along with a few chances for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... KOAX is returning widespread 20-40 dBzs reflecting off showers associated with a shortwave embedded in the WNW 500 hPa flow. Some are reaching the ground and some are not. Have maintained 20-50% PoPs through the evening. Nearly no QPF is forecast. Have maintained some iso PoPs along the KS state line after midnight as an MCS will work along the cold front draped across that state. The bulk of the moisture is forecast to fall the other side of our shared border. Portions of eastern Kansas could be in for a poor night of sleep. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Sunday and Monday will be dry with pleasant conditions forecast thanks in part to the lower dewpoints filtering in on today`s weak northerly surface flow that continues through Sunday. Sunday`s highs near 80 will be repeated on Monday as the northerly winds veer and become southerly return flow as the surface ridge passes through. That ridge will assure plenty of sunshine through the day. .TUESDAY... A significant trof works along the international border and drags a cold front through the Northern Plains on Tuesday and brings 30-40% chance of rain. CAPE and PWAT are marginal at best leaving me to believe it might just be a pleasant early summer rain. .THE REST OF THE WEEK... Expect a zonal upper flow developing mid-week bringing a parade of waves to the Corn Belt. Severe weather looks possible on Wednesday and Thursday, but plenty of questions remain including location and timing. It`s worth noting that severe weather is at its climatological peak in mid- June for this CWA. Continue to forecast lower-90s for Wednesday and Thursday, but confidence isn`t great with the severe weather threat in place. Cloud cover or front placement could spoil the fun. A rare climate portion of the discussion is included below. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Chance of showers is the primary concern with this TAF forecast. Have maintained their mention at all three sites, but confidence has slipped. Believe chance is closer to 25-30% for any measurable precip. Have narrowed the windows of possible precip as those showers slip south over the course of the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions prevail through it all with northerly winds gusting to 20 knots this afternoon and becoming light overnight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Omaha and Norfolk have yet to hit 90F this year which is nearly a month behind schedule when averaging the date of the first 90F day over the past 30 years. Both cities are currently forecast to get there by Thursday. Despite the lack of 90F days thus far, the entire area is still averaging warmer than normal high temps for the past 30 days, past 90 days, and past 365 days. In fact, the past year (6/8/23 to 6/7/24) is tied for the fourth warmest of the same period at Omaha (+2.7) and sixth warmest for KOFK in their POR (+3.5F). Lincoln climbed to 91F this past Thursday (30 days later than latest 30 year average) and is on a scorching pace. The past 365 days were the warmest early June to early June for the threadex`s 136 year history. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Nicolaisen CLIMATE...Nicolaisen