731
FXUS66 KOTX 290447
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
947 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and mostly dry weather on Friday will be followed by warmer
temperatures Saturday. The next system will arrive Sunday
producing breezy winds and the chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures will
continue through early next week. The forecast will trend warmer
and drier by the middle to the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast for Saturday night into Sunday morning has been
updated to increase precipitation chances across southeast
Washington into the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. The
evening runs of the GFS and NAM have increased nocturnal showers
ahead of Sunday`s cold front. Elevated instability is limited, but
HREF members generate enough simulated reflectivity to include a
10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms between midnight and 5 AM
across the Palouse into Shoshone county. High temperatures have
also trended down a couple degrees on the National Blend of Models
across north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. The trend
is supported by 00z GFS and NAM MOS, so this trend has also been
included in the update for Sunday. /GKoch


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Bands of mid and high clouds will increase overnight
with ceilings at or above 10 thousand feet. Surface winds through
00z Sunday will mainly be less than 10kts region-wide. There will
be a 30 percent chance of showers over the north Cascades between
20-06z. As convection spreads east of the mountains, airports
that will have a chance of brief downpours and outflow gusts to
30kts will be Wenatchee, Chelan, Methow Valley in Winthrop, and
Omak.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at our airport through 00z.
General aviation pilots will need to monitor radar for showers and
thunderstorms after 00z Sunday around the Methow Valley,
Leavenworth, Chelan, and Omak. /GK

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        56  83  59  80  55  81 /   0  10  30  30   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  55  81  58  76  54  77 /   0  10  40  30  10  20
Pullman        52  81  56  77  52  76 /   0   0  50  40   0   0
Lewiston       60  90  66  86  61  86 /   0   0  50  40   0   0
Colville       48  80  50  76  45  78 /   0  10  30  80  20  30
Sandpoint      51  78  55  72  51  74 /   0  10  40  80  20  40
Kellogg        56  78  60  73  55  72 /   0  10  50  70  10  20
Moses Lake     59  86  60  86  55  86 /   0  10  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      64  83  62  82  60  81 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Omak           59  86  60  85  55  85 /   0  10  30  30   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$