979
FXUS63 KPAH 131823
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
123 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance of thunderstorms with an approaching front late
  tonight and Friday afternoon.

- Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru
  next week with daily heat indices around 100 degrees. An
  isolated heat of day thunderstorm then cannot be ruled out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Showers/storms well to our north (over IA) will dive southward
with a front tonight. It will arrive on our doorstep by/after
midnight, with little instability/shear remaining to feed it.
Still, there may be just enough gas left for an isolated shower
or storm, mainly north of I-64.

The main part of the system/front makes passage over the Mid to
Upper part of the Ohio Valley tmrw, trail-dragging its boundary
across our CWA or maybe more like disintegrating it as the mean
Central U.S. ridge starts to build. It or an outflow from
convection thereof may be just enough for a little heat of day
fuel/forcing tmrw to also carry an isolated pop, with the best
chance shifting from the north part to the south part of the FA.

After sunset, the high pressure ridge starts to really take
over and leads to giving us our first prolonged period of
heat/humidity. Daily temps soar into/thru the 90s, and after a
brief post frontal cooldown in dew points Saturday, they return
to near 70F for the new week. As a result, the new week will see
consistent daily heat index values in the upper 90s, with a few
triple digit readings to boot. And CPC outlooks our area with
Excessive Heat thru the 24th, so it`s possible we don`t see
temps/dew points like we have right now again until maybe even
October?! Also, along with the summer-like heat and humidity
returning, a daily heat-of-day pulse type storm cannot be
completely ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A cold front will dive in from the north tonight, increasing mid
and high level cloudiness that spreads in from its upstream
convection. There may be enough of it that holds together to
introduce a small (30%) pop for KMVN, with lesser chances to the
south as the boundary works thru the remainder of the terminals
thru tmrw morning. Expect a pre frontal southwesterly breeze
early tmrw to shift to the northwest with fropa by or before
early tmrw pm. Restricted CIGS around 3K FT AGL will accompany
its passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$