209
FXUS65 KPIH 271156 CCA
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
Issued by National Weather Service Boise ID
540 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a departing warm front
into Montana and Wyoming as a cold front begins to drop SE out of
NRN Idaho and the PacNW. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
ongoing this morning will continue to shift east as best chances
for convection later today remain confined to the Montana, Utah,
and Wyoming border regions with predominantly dry conditions
expected elsewhere throughout the day. As this cold front
progresses east a drier and colder air mass will shift overhead as
a H5 trough continues to track east along the Canadian border.
Given the drier conditions today, strong winds at 700 mb around
35-45 kts will mix down to the surface supporting winds around
20-40 mph with gusts to 40-60 mph, locally stronger across the
Arco/Mud Lake Desert and Upper Snake Plain in that 60-70 mph
range. A WIND ADVISORY remains in effect for this region through
9 PM MDT this evening as lighter winds return overnight. Under the
influence of dry, zonal/NW flow behind today`s cold front,
seasonably cool weather will return through friday with highs in
the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 30s/40s/50s. Winds on
Friday will be much lighter than Thursday given lighter winds
aloft, with sustained winds staying less than 20 mph, MacKay

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.
Following a cooler end to the work week, temperatures will be on
the rise for the weekend as a H5 ridge of high pressure shifts
east over the NRN Rockies. As a result, high temperatures on
Saturday will be around 8-15 degrees warmer than Friday in the 80s
to mid 90s as sustained winds remain light. While similarly warm
conditions will continue into Sunday, and approaching H5 trough
out of the NE Pacific will help to reintroduce breezy winds for
Sunday and Monday in addition to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Winds each day will peak during the afternoon hours
with gusts to around 30-50 mph. PWATs will remain less than 0.75"
through this timeframe, supporting a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms. A warm front on Sunday followed by a cold front on
Monday will be the main drivers of convection as the best chances
for activity remain farther north and east with the driest
conditions expected around the Magic and Treasure Valley region.
As this H5 trough departs east onto the NRN Plains for Tuesday,
isolated showers and storms will remain possible around Clark,
Fremont, and Teton Counties as dry conditions return elsewhere
regionwide. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be
seasonably cool in the 70s to low 80s, aided by a NW/zonal flow
pattern with breezy winds each afternoon. There is high confidence
on a well-defined H% ridge of high pressure shifting overhead
midweek next week which will lead to warmer and continued dry
conditions heading toward Independence Day. Highs will return to
the 80s to low/mid 90s as dry conditions continue through next
weekend. MacKay

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions are expected for Thursday as a
cold front tracks east across SRN Idaho. As a result, strong winds
are expected which will be strongest during the daytime hours
around 15-30 kts with gusts 25-45 kts. Best chances for isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity today will be along the Montana
and Wyoming border regions but with less than a 10% chance of
reaching KDIJ, have maintained dry conditions at all terminals
today. Lighter winds will return overnight tonight and continue
through Friday and Saturday under the increasing influence of high
pressure. MacKay

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As a cold front tracks east across SRN Idaho today, string winds
are expected regionwide as best chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms shifts to being confined along the Montana, Wyoming,
and Utah border regions. Winds are expected to peak around 20-40
mph with gusts 40-60 mph, locally strong along FWZ 410. Afternoon
humidities will also bottom out today in the single digits and
teens across portions of FWZ 410, 425, and 476. Winds will subside
this evening as dry conditions return through Saturday under the
increasing influence of high pressure. Following cooler
conditions on Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will be about
8-15 degrees warmer this weekend.

Our next system remains on track to arrive Sunday into Monday with
isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms and a return to breezy
winds. Best chances for activity will remain farther north and
east with the driest conditions expected around FWZ 425. With
PWATs remaining less than 0.75 inch during this event, we may end
up seeing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms as well. Dry
conditions will return Tuesday outside of isolated showers and
storms around FWZ 411 with seasonable cool temperatures expected
both Monday and Tuesday. There is high confidence on a well
defined H5 ridge of high pressure shifting overhead midweek next
week which will lead to warmer and dry conditions heading toward
Independence Day. Highs will return to the 80s to low/mid 90s as
dry conditions continue through next weekend. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for IDZ052>054-067.

&&

$$