147
FXUS65 KPIH 102022
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
222 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night.
Following an active past 72 hours across ERN Idaho, seasonably
warm and dry conditions will return for much of this upcoming week
under the increasing influence of a H5 ridge of high pressure
over the WRN CONUS. While today will feature a nonzero chance of
showers and thunderstorms east of I-15 this afternoon and evening
associated with lingering moisture behind Sunday`s cold front,
conditions will remain predominantly dry and continue into Tuesday
as warm, dry, and zonal/SW flow shifts overhead. Highs today will
range from the low 70s to low 80s and will warm about 4-8 degrees
for Tuesday into the mid 70s to upper 80s with overnight lows in
the 40s and 50s both tonight and Tuesday night. Winds will remain
elevated primarily during the afternoon and evening hours with
sustained winds peaking around 15-25 mph with locally stronger
winds across the Snake River Plain. MacKay

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.
Models continue to show a weak trough moving well north of
Southeast Idaho on Wednesday causing zonal flow aloft with breezy
winds (gusts of 25 to 40 mph) at the surface with the strongest
winds over the Arco desert. Right now models are showing 20 mph
sustained winds at the American Falls reservoir late Wednesday. A
lake wind advisory for the American Falls reservoir may be needed.
Late Wednesday into Thursday models still show weak high pressure
building back in before bringing a trough/cold front through the
area on Friday into Saturday. Expect dry conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Will see an increase in the chance for
convection with showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly along the
Montana Divide. Saturday looks mostly dry, but breezy. Look for
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday.Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with
temperatures possibly hitting 90 degrees (30 to 60 percent chance
from NBM model) for some lower areas across the Shoshone, Eastern
Magic Valley, Southern Snake Plain, Raft river, and the
Franklin/Oneida/Cache Valley regions. Temperatures look to drop
quite a bit on Saturday, becoming near normal. Sunday and Monday
look for temperatures to drop even more, 3 to 6 degrees below
normal (50/60s in mountains and low to mid 70s for lower valleys).
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday.
High pressure is building in across Southeast Idaho from the west
to east this afternoon into tomorrow. Look for mostly clear skies
and slightly afternoon breezy winds today and tomorrow. KDIJ has
some lingering moisture and mid-level ceilings in the area. Models
have backed off on precipitation for this afternoon with the HREF
showing less than a 10% chance of precipitation for Driggs.
Driggs will become mostly clear by this evening. Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The passage of last night`s cold front will cool off
temperatures. Humidity will be much lower in the afternoon as
skies clear and the precipitation ends. As upper level high
pressure returns, look for warming to resume Tue. By Wed,
afternoon humidity below 15 percent should return to lower
elevations in the Salmon- Challis and the Arco Desert. Gusty
afternoon wind will continue. Messick

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect for the Teton River near Driggs
as small streams/creeks and the main stem river continue to run
high. Minor flooding is being observed on the Teton River and is
expected to remain at that level through Tuesday, aided by
additional snowmelt from the Tetons and Big Holes. With the latest
NWRFC forecast showing this gage dropping below minor stage on
Tuesday, have gone ahead and added an expiration time for the
warning to be 3 PM Tuesday. This may need to be adjusted dependent
on future flows and trends going forward, with warmer
temperatures certainly still leading to additional snowmelt. This
additional snowmelt is expected to keep the river in action stage
through much of this upcoming week. Further downstream along the
Teton River near St. Anthony, that gage remains at action stage
and is only a couple inches away from minor flood stage. That gage
is expected to crest today and come down below action stage by
Wednesday.

Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains are also seeing
diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at Howell Ranch
currently hovering around action stage. Along the Snake River,
increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir have also led to the
Snake River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage and it is
expected to stay there until further notice. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$