Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 211946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday. Early afternoon satellite
imagery was showing a low pressure trough sweeping east through
Canada with some reflection of increasing winds across SE Idaho at
this time. Expect breezy and warm conditions to continue late this
afternoon and evening as the trough moves east through Canada. The
GFS and NAM models are both showing fairly wet conditions sweeping
across the area Sunday night and Monday as a second, deeper low
pressure system pushes east through the area. The models are also
showing some strong convective precipitation returns with the
thunderstorm activity which may produce enhanced runoff (or even
some areal flooding) in those areas recording heavy rain on snow
conditions. The trough sweeps east of the region Monday night with
drier and colder conditions setting up across the area by Tuesday
morning. Daytime highs should recover to around normal under
abundant sunshine and a ridge building over the NW states Tuesday
afternoon. Huston

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. Upper level ridge
expected to be dominant feature early in the extended with mild
temperatures and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures
will be above seasonal normal through the entire long term period.
As the ridge moves east there will be an increase in the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the central mountains Friday and a
chance over all of southeast Idaho Saturday. GK

.AVIATION...The 10 to 20 knot winds at BYI, PIH and IDA should
diminish to 10 knots or less by sunset. Will have widespread VFR
through noon Sunday. The next cold frontal system will move through
Sunday and expect conditions to deteriorate late Sunday through
Sunday night with the potential for MVFR conditions in showers but
confidence low. Ceilings may stay VFR especially at BYI, PIH, and


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