161
FXUS65 KPUB 290541
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1141 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
  through early this evening, with a low chance, 20 to 30
  percent, for a severe storm or two across the far eastern
  plains.

- Thunderstorm chances increase on Saturday and Sunday, along
  with the risk for severe storms and flash flooding.

- Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Monday through
  Wednesday, though coverage and intensity look to decrease
  throughout the week.

- Dry conditions return for Fourth of July, which will mean
  less thunderstorm coverage for many, but marginal fire danger
  for some.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed across southern Colorado this afternoon as westerly
flow aloft has ushered additional shortwave energy. Some lee
troughing has occurred, however, given lacking focus and deep
westerly flow, overall coverage has remained limited. For the
remainder of the afternoon, think this setup will continue and
support this more isolated to widely scattered development.
Additionally, the westerlies have supported drying once again
today, with the main instability axis shifting to the east out
of the area. With this drier air and lowering instability, think
the risk of severe weather will be low this afternoon. Slightly
higher instability along and west of the Continental Divide
could support an isolated stronger storm capable of producing
brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. Elsewhere, gusty winds
will likely accompany any storm or shower given the dry air in
the lower levels, and with a fair amount of DCAPE in place
across southern Colorado.

Think there is still a low chance, 20 to 30 percent, for a
severe storm or two across the far eastern plains. This
potential looks to be primarily over Kiowa county, along a
southward moving boundary. Guidance varies on this potential
given the placement of the boundary along with the potential
instability. While some CAMs are showing development in this
area through around 7-8 pm, still think the risk of severe
storms will be on the lower side given the likelihood the main
instability axis will be to the east in Kansas. At this time, a
more likely scenario is for the continued risk of stronger
storms. Slightly higher moisture and instability along with even
700mb flow focused right in this area could support the risk of
small hail and strong gusty winds. Will continue to keep an eye
on trends with how the instability evolves later this evening
as some guidance is showing a trend back west. If that were to
occur, could see the risk of severe storms increase, still
mainly over Kiowa county.

Will see cooler temps return to the area on Saturday with the
arrival of the post frontal air. Relatively quiet early on, but
will see thunderstorm activity increase during the afternoon
hours as moisture and instability return back to southern
Colorado. Will need to monitor the potential for both strong to
severe weather along with the potential for heavy rains and
possible flash flooding. While these are concerns, there is some
uncertainty with regard to the extent, placement, and even
timing of the instability on Saturday. Additionally, strong
capping in place throws some additional uncertainty as to the
extent of the thunderstorm development. It could be that
convection delays for most of the day, until
moisture/instability pushes up against the southeast mountains
via deep and persistent south/southeast flow, and then storm
development occurs. If so, would see storms then push away from
the higher terrain. Once again, the extent of the instability
will factor into how intense storms get. Will continue to
monitor the potential for strong to severe development, along
with the risk of heavy rains and flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Sunday..

Though we remain cooler for Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid
80s to mid 90s on the plains, chances for severe thunderstorms look
to remain in our forecast as abundant moisture lingers over the
forecast area. EPS and GEFS ensemble members keep PWAT anomalies
around 180% to 220% of normal over our plains for Sunday, which will
lead to heightened chances for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorm chances in general. Models are not in great agreement
about the exact amount of shear or instability that we should
realize on Sunday quite yet, but the overall idea seems to be that
we could see anywhere from 1200-2000 J/Kg of SBCAPE along the I-25
corridor and eastwards onto our plains. Most models are showing
pretty lackluster shear of 20kts or less, which could ultimately be
a limiting a factor for severe thunderstorm development, but the
FV3, one of the few CAMs that goes out into Sunday at this early
stage, is showing closer to 35kts over the Pikes Peak region, along
with 45kts over our eastern plains. If higher shear is realized, our
severe potential will of course increase for Sunday, with all modes
of severe possible including a risk for isolated tornados.

Monday Through Wednesday

A slow warming a drying trend begins on Monday and persists through
the middle of the work week. This will keep our temperatures just a
few degrees above normal for most locations during this timeframe.
The decreased moisture will also limit our our risk for severe
thunderstorm development, however, we will see daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms, especially over the high country. At this
time, critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the
first half of next week, with  relative humidity values
looking to stay around the 19-24% range at least every afternoon,
and winds remaining fairly weak (outside of thunderstorm activity.)

Fourth of July and Onwards..

Ensembles bring quieter and more northwesterly flow aloft towards
our region by Thursday, which should lead to at least a day or two
of very sparse thunderstorm chances, and warmer temperatures for
Thursday and Friday. One concern with our Fourth of July forecast is
that our relative humidity values look to fall down into the mid to
upper teens in a few places, including the upper and middle Arkansas
River Valley to include the Pueblo area, which could lead to
dangerously dry conditions for Holiday activities. For most areas,
winds look to remain below critical fire weather thresholds, but the
overall dryness could end up being something that needs to be
monitored as we head into the second half of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Weather is expected to be rather active during this forecast
period, especially for KCOS and KPUB. First, a rather strong
cold front is going to come down the eastern plains tonight,
crossing KCOS around 09 UTC and KPUB at 10 UTC. Wind could gusts
to 35 to 40 knots (or briefly higher), with the winds only
slowly decreasing and gradually veering to easterly then
southeasterly by late morning. Second, a strong band of showers
and thunderstorms are expected to cross over the KPUB and KCOS
taf sites around 00 UTC late tomorrow afternoon, with locally
heavy rain and possibly some hail. Strong gusty winds from the
northwest are likely with the storms.

AT KALS, VFR is likely through nearly all of the fcst
period, with some TSRA being possible during tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...HODANISH/KT