513
FXUS65 KPUB 272039
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms, a few strong to severe, will continue
  through the evening, with showers lingering into the overnight
  hours across the ContDvd.

- Warmer and slightly drier through the day Friday.

- Daily threat of afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms, with the strongest storms most likely on
  Sunday.

- Cold front late Friday evening will bring temporary relief
  Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest
westerly flow aloft across the region, with one embedded wave
translating across south central Colorado and another embedded
wave indicated across eastern Utah attm. Blended precipitable
water imagery indicating PWATS to around 150 percent of normal
across the region attm, with some drier air noted across the
Great Basin attm. Regional radars indicating scattered showers
and thunderstorms associated with the 1st embedded wave lifting
off the eastern mountains and out across the eastern Plains, while
more showers and storms are indicated across eastern Utah and into
western Colorado attm. At the surface, lee troughing and westerly
downslope has mixed out some low level moisture across the eastern
mtns and I-25 Corridor, with the SPC meso analysis indicating MUCape
of up to 1000 j/kg across the higher terrain and into the I-25
Corridor, as MUCape increases to over 2000 j/kg across the far
southeast Plains attm. The best effective shears of up to 35kts
across south central Colorado remain progged to push east across
the southeast Plains through the late afternoon and evening.

With that all said, still could see a few strong to severe storms
across the eastern Plains through the late afternoon and early
evening, with showers and storms continuing to move east across
western Colorado into south central Colorado this evening. Latest
CAMS do indicate these showers and storms diminishing as the try to
push east across the eastern Mtns late this evening and into
the overnight hours. With the expected cloud cover through the
evening and into tonight, should see overnight lows at and above
seasonal levels.

Modest westerly flow continues across the region through the day
tomorrow, with drier air slowly mixing into south central and
southeast Colorado. There will still be enough residual moisture
to support isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the
best coverage across the Central Mtns into the Pikes Peak region
into northern portions of the southeast plains, where SPC has
a marginal risk of severe storms across Kiowa County tomorrow
associated with a cold front moving across the region tomorrow
evening. With westerly downslope and drier conditions expected
tomorrow, should see unseasonably warm temperatures return,
with highs in the 90s to around the century mark across the plains,
and mainly in the 70s and 80s across higher terrain, save 50s and
60s at the peaks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Friday night through Sunday...An upper low system tracking across
the northern tier will force a cold front south into CO late Fri
night. Ahead of the frontal passage expect brisk westerly flow at
times, then surface winds will swing around to an easterly direction
post-frontal overnight into Sat morning, pushing llvl moisture west
towards the eastern mts and I-25 Corridor. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with enhanced cloud cover is anticipated across much
of the forecast area through the day Saturday, and high temps will
likely end up being in the 80s for the high valleys. Across the
plains, highs may well be in the upper 70s to mid 80s which is
actually around 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. On
Sunday the surface flow becomes more southerly, which will allow
maximum temperatures to creep up into the upper 80s to lower 90s for
the plains which would be seasonal normals. There will be an
enhanced chance for stronger convection Sun afternoon and early
evening, as available moisture, favorable dynamics and wind shear
combine. Main threats from storms will be strong and erratic wind
gusts, cloud to ground lightning and potentially larger hail. In
addition, flash flooding will be a concern with any slower moving
thunderstorms both Sat and Sun, and area burn scars will need to be
monitored closely.

Monday through Wednesday...Long range models are now indicating a
return to the flat ridge across the southern US, while a broad
trough to the north keeping a west to southwest flow aloft in place
across the Great basin and Four Corners region. Multiple upper
disturbances will tap into available moisture for isolated to
scattered convection Mon and Tue, mainly over the mts, then an
uptick in activity for Wed with more action across the eastern
plains. The heat returns, with highs each day around 80F for the
high valleys, and 90s to near 100F for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. With ample available moisture and a weak embedded wave
moving through the Rockies, there will be good chances of showers
and storms affecting the terminals through the afternoon and
early evening, with gusty outflow winds, small hail and brief
heavy rain possible at all 3 terminals. Some showers will
continue across the ContDvd into the overnight hours, with
partially clearing skies into Friday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW