Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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109 FXUS65 KPUB 250950 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 350 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues today for urban areas along the I-25 corridor and lower Arkansas River Valley with high temperatures possibly challenging records for this day. - Isolated afternoon and evening high based showers/storms possible today with gusty outflow winds the primary concern. - Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon, with strong to severe storms possible across the plains. - Afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday through Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 347 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper high builds over the region today bringing some of the hottest temperatures so far this season across southern Colorado. With H7 temperatures similar to a degree warmer than yesterday, this should net highs at least as warm as yesterday to a degree or two warmer. Have leaned high temperatures closer to the 90th percentile of NBM which is closer to guidance values and similar to yesterday`s readings. These could challenge current records for this date which are 93 in KALS, 98 in KCOS and 105 in KPUB, all set in 2012. KPUB stands the best chance of seeing a record tie. Current Heat Advisory still looks on track for the portions of the southern I-25 corridor and lower Arkansas River valley counties. Skies will start out mostly sunny, but another weak wave and mid/high based moisture rotating through the upper ridge across CO will lead to another round of shallow convective build ups/isolated high based showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Main risk will be gusty erratic outflow winds up to 50 mph near high based thunderstorms. Any rainfall will be spotty, brief and light. HREF does suggest that convective coverage today will be more sparse than yesterday`s. Showers will quickly diminish this evening. A surface high dropping through the central plains will back door a cool front into the southeast plains late tonight. This will boost dew points across the southeast plains setting the stage for better thunderstorm chances on Wednesday. -KT && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 347 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Wednesday: For the midweek period, an uptick in active weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. A short wave drifting across the northern periphery of a ridge of high pressure will push over the region during the day. As it does so, forcing over the area will increase in response. Along with that, a cold front will sag across the eastern plains during the day, with rising moisture behind this front. With the uptick in both forcing and moisture, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon hours, first initially along the mountains and then spreading eastward across the plains. Some thunderstorms across the plains may be strong to severe given the increase in moisture and instability, with the greatest hazards being severe wind gusts and large hail. Any precipitation present during the day will lessen in coverage and intensity during the evening hours as forcing and instability wane. As for temperatures, another hot day is expected, with much of the area warming to around and slightly above seasonal values, even despite a minor cold front passage early in the day. Thursday - Monday: For the rest of the long term period, active weather continues. The aforementioned ridge will become more messy as it partially flattens out, allowing for short waves to continue to drift over the area. These waves will continue to bring periods of enhanced forcing across the region. In addition to that, at least modest moisture will remain in place. With the forcing and moisture continuing, rain showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each day, especially along the mountains, with the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Looking at temperatures, the heat persist, with most of this period around and slightly above seasonal values for late June to early July. With that said though, another cold front is expected to push southward during Saturday, and that will bring at least one day of "cooler" temperatures and some relief from the hot stretch of days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 347 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions expected today with cumulus build ups developing in the late afternoon and early evening. High based shower and thunderstorm coverage over and near the mountains should be much more sparse today compared to yesterday. Gusty erratic winds up to 45 kts near high based -SHRA will be possible but odds are too low to include in the TAFs at this point. Winds will shift from the east this afternoon but remain under 15 kts for KCOS and KPUB. Lighter winds are expected at KALS though they could become briefly gusty late this afternoon and evening if outflows from high based convection pushes off the mountains. Otherwise, expect clearing skies overnight with diurnally driven winds at the TAF sites until a stronger easterly push behind a cool front spreads into the I-25 corridor and the KCOS and KPUB taf sites early Wed AM. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-093-097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...KT