813
FNUS75 KPUB 252001
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Oak Ridge...RMCIMT Three
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
201 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MDT on June 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Relatively light winds are being observed around the Oak Ridge Fire,
but a few gusts of around 20MPH have been observed. Looking at satellite,
cumulus clouds have developed along the majority of the mountains of central
Colorado, but there have been no storms strong enough to be seen on radar.
This is good news because the trend in observations decrease storms with
gusty outflow boundary. Now until around 1700 there is a still a chance
for a weak storm. You`ll know if you are about to get a wind shift if you see
clouds with rain falling from the base but evaporates before hitting the ground -
those are the storms that will create the strongest winds. The winds will also
be coming from the direction of where those storms are - i.e. if the storm is
relatively close to you and located to the north, expect gusty northerly winds.

After sunset, winds will be downvalley once more.

Tomorrow winds will shift over the plains to be from the east/southeast which
will aid in thunderstorm development in two waves. The first chance of storms will
be between 1600-1800, then the second wave between 1900-2100. If a storm goes
over the fire expect moderate to heavy rain with gusty and erratic winds. If the
storms move just past the fire, but not directly over it, strong winds will cause
stark wind shifts and cause fire behavior to become erratic. Thunderstorm chances
diminish after 2100.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly clear. Areas of smoke.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....64F.
Max humidity........33-38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North-northeast winds around 10 MPH.
Mixing height.......10000 ft agl until 2000, then 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny(35 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....86F.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Downvalley winds around 6 MPH until 1200, then
                    southeast around 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......3000 ft agl until 1100, then 4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...SKELLY
Requested by...FBAN
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416612.2/PUB
.DELDT 06/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0