915
FXUS62 KRAH 070143 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
943 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move in with less humid air for the weekend. A
passing disturbance will bring unsettled weather Sunday night.

&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 943 PM Thursday...

A band of pre-frontal showers/tstms is crossing central NC attm, out
ahead of a sfc cold front that is now crossing the mountains. Until
this band of convection moves to our east around 2 AM or so...
lingering elevated instability could help maintain the risk for some
lightning as well as some isold 40+ mph wind gusts with the
strongest cells.

Regional radar shows a couple areas of additional scattered shower
activity ongoing attm to our northwest over the mountains near the
actual front. Latest HRRR suggests this activity will decrease
before reaching our area, thus will remove PoPs from west to east
overnight after the current band of convection moves to our east.

Lows in the mid 60s north to lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Thursday...

This period will be largely dry with lower humidity. The cold front
is expected to be pushing through the Coastal Plain Fri morning
before settling to our SE, as high pressure over MO/AR drifts
eastward and into our area with a dry and diffluent NW/NNW low level
flow. PWs will drop to an inch or less and remain low through at
least the first half of Sat. We will see a lee trough set up over NC
Sat as a second cold front pushes through the Midwest and toward our
area, with PWs expected to rebound back near 1.5" as a weak mid
level trough and slug of deeper moisture cross the area Sat
evening/night, however point soundings show that much of this
moisture is in the mid-upper levels, with minimal lower level
moisture, thus expect it to stay largely dry with little more than a
few sprinkles. Temps are likely to stay within a degree or two of
normals for highs and lows, although perhaps a bit warmer Sat night
with an expected increase in clouds. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 231 PM Thursday...

Upper level low pressure over eastern Canada and associated surface
low will drag a cold front across much of the eastern CONUS on
Sunday, including NC. PW`s will remain at or above 1.5 inches across
the area on Sunday ahead of the front, but most guidance shows
precip lagging behind and not moving through NC until late in the
day, perhaps as late as 00Z. I will maintain 20-30 PoPs across the
area Sunday afternoon through the early overnight hours as the front
moves through. Temps Sunday within the warm sector ahead of the
front should easily reach the upper 80s across the western Piedmont,
to the mid 90s across the southeast. Lows Sunday night likely
ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

In the wake of the front, broad WNW flow aloft is expected across
the area through at least Tuesday. There are some ensemble solutions
that suggest a trailing shortwave trough will cross the mountains
and move through the area on Monday, kicking off additional showers
in the process. Between the presence of a lee trough and a potential
shortwave, I can`t entirely rule out some isolated showers on Monday
but they will be occurring within a relatively dry post-frontal
atmosphere featuring sub 1.0" PW`s and weak forcing. 15-20 PoPs
primarily during the afternoon/early evening hours are well
supported by today`s ensembles. Highs Monday will range from the
lower 80s in the west to upper 80s in the east. Lows in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Forecast confidence is relatively low for Tuesday through Thursday
given the changing nature of the upper flow and how quickly it
transitions from northwesterly to weak ridging to southwesterly.
Tuesday looks to be the day where upper ridging is most likely
although some isolated weak diurnal showers are still possible. As
the week progresses, return flow sets up and higher PW`s begin to
creep northward, yet upper shortwaves and best forcing remains
displaced west of the area. PoPs from Tuesday onward will be
primarily diurnal in nature ranging from 20-30 percent area-wide.
This time period will also feature steadily increasing temperatures
with highs returning to the upper 80s. Lows in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...

24-hour TAF period: Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms
will continue across central NC this evening. The threat should end
around INT and GSO in the next hour or two, but at the eastern TAF
sites (RDU, FAY and RWI) it will last for several more hours. Brief
MVFR ceilings, MVFR to IFR visibilities, and gusty winds as high as
35-45 kts can`t be ruled out with any storms. The storms should be
largely out of the area by 06z, but a few showers could linger in
the far SE for a few hours after that. Otherwise it will be a quiet
overnight with VFR conditions and clearing skies, as we dry out
behind a cold frontal passage. Clear skies and VFR conditions will
continue tomorrow. SW winds ahead of the cold front will turn W/NW
once the front passes through tonight, remaining fairly light
outside of any storms/outflows. W/NW winds will increase from late
morning into the afternoon tomorrow, gusting up to 15-20 kts.

Outlook: A moisture starved cold front and upper disturbance could
bring some isolated showers or storms Sunday night and Monday.
Otherwise, mostly dry VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday,
but confidence in the forecast once we get to Tuesday is low.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Danco/CBL