495
FXUS61 KRLX 270527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses overnight into Thursday, taking its
showers and storms with it. Another cold front crosses this
weekend, with additional storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 was allowed to expire, as the
severe weather threat associated with a mid/upper-level short
wave trough and surface cold front waned after sunset. The last
line of showers and waning thunderstorms was slicing through
central WV late this evening, and will push through the rest of
the forecast area during the overnight hours, save for light
showers or drizzle lingering in and near the mountains into
Thursday.

As of 830 PM Wednesday...

With round two of the severe threat appearing to set up east
the Ohio River, have canceled Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
west of it.

Aside from lingering low clouds a little longer and farther west
on Thursday, the rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 815 PM Wednesday...

The threat for the strongest thunderstorms appeared to be
shifting east of the Ohio River.

As of 505 PM Wednesday...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 in effect until 10 PM to account
for ongoing convection in central WV, which has caused tree
damage and produced close to one-inch size hail in Kanawha
County, and the potential convective development farther west,
more closely tied forcing associated with with mid-level short
wave trough.

As of 1237 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms from this morning will continue to gradually lift
north and east of the area. An area of clearing in the cloud cover
has occurred across parts of our south and west behind this band,
and mesoanalysis and satellite images indicate increasing
instability and some cu starting to develop in the area of clearing.
Showers and storms will ramp up this afternoon and evening out ahead
of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front in the increasingly
unstable atmosphere, with the possibility of a few storms becoming
strong to severe. Model soundings indicate the potential for 2500
J/Kg cape out ahead of this feature, and with strengthening deep
unidirectional shear, linear organization of storms is possible,
along with the possibility of pulse severe storms, with a damaging
wind threat. In addition, with freezing levels around 12k feet, some
marginally severe hail is possible. In addition, with PW values
already around 1.7 inches and progged to rise to close to 2 inches,
heavy downpours will accompany any storms, and although we are quite
dry, a localized water issue cant be completely ruled out in poor
drainage/low lying areas.

Frontal boundary will clear mountains during the day Thursday.
Additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday across the
higher terrain from any lingering moisture, but most of the area
should dry out and be cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

After a comfortable Thursday night with lows ranging from the
mid-50s to the mid-60s, winds shift S`ly and bring heat and
humidity back to the area for Friday. Highs are forecast in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, and dew points creep back up towards 70
degrees. It should remain dry for most of the CWA on Friday, but
some convective activity is possible in the higher terrain,
especially the southern mountains. A muggy Friday night is in
store, with lows generally in the low to mid-70s for lower
elevations. Some of the model data hints at a weak upper-level
shortwave crossing the area Friday night, which could help
enhance shower and t-storm chances area-wide, so POPs were
boosted to chance for most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

Another shortwave could cross the area during the day Saturday
as the next cold front approaches from the west, with showers
and storms likely on Saturday. It will also be very humid on
Saturday, and likely on the hot side, though that may depend on
precip and cloud coverage in the afternoon. SPC did not put any
15% outlook area on the Day 4/Saturday map, as there remains
uncertainty on the severe parameters. That said, there is a
chance for both sufficient instability and at least marginal
shear across the area during the day on Saturday, so we`ll need
to monitor for severe potential. Ensemble mean PWATs are near
or over 2" for much of the area on all three global ensembles,
so flooding risk will also need to be monitored - WPC does have
our area in a Marginal excessive rainfall risk for Day 4, which
seems sensible at this time. With the front passage currently
timed for the late Saturday night or Sunday morning, the severe
risk is likely lower than what it would be otherwise. That said,
there are some indications in forecast soundings and MU CAPE
values that some elevated instability could track with the
front, so we may not be able to let our guard down entirely
Saturday night.

After the wet and muggy start Sunday morning, dry air and
surface high pressure working in behind the front will clear the
showers and storms, and should drop dew points under 70 degrees
for all by sunset. Sunday night through Monday night look to be
some banner weather for those looking for a break from the hot
weather. Dew points look to be in the 50s to lower 60s, with
overnight lows at similar levels and Monday`s highs ranging from
upper 60s on the highest ridges to low 80s in the Ohio Valley
area. All good things must come to an end, however, and
southerly winds developing on Tuesday will bring surging dew
points and temperatures across the CWA, though lingering upper-
level ridging should hold off rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Thunderstorms have all but subsided and precipitation is moving
eastward with a cold front crossing through the area. Low
clouds and fog will form as this activity subsides, with MVFR
conditions expected across a bulk of the area. IFR to VLIFR
expected in the mountains and foothills. The fog will lift
after the dawn, and then the clouds gradually lifting shortly
there after. VFR conditions will then take over from afternoon
on as drier air arrives ahead of high pressure to the north.

Winds of westerly or northerly direction will slack off and
remain light and variable to calm through the morning. Light
northerly to northeasterly flow will pick up by afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers diminishing may differ.
Location and intensity of low stratus and fog this morning may
vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 06/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    M    L    L    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC