Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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060 FXUS63 KSGF 251726 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area until 8 PM today. Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s with Heat Index values between 100 to 105. - Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid-90s through this week, with Heat Index values ranging in the 90s and into the 100s. - Scattered thunderstorm chances tonight into Wednesday, with highest chances (40 to 70%) after midnight. Slight risk for severe weather for the majority of the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Surface observations during the early morning hours showed widespread overnight temperatures remaining in the mid 70s up to 80 and scattered mid to high level clouds. With temperatures dropping only a few more degrees over the next few hours, little to no relief is expected from the heat. As we progress into the morning and afternoon hours, temperatures will begin to climb back up as an upper level High remains over the southern CONUS and the ridging pattern continues, bringing afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. That, coupled with high humidity will allow for heat indices between 99-105, leading to the continuation of the Heat Advisory for the entire area until 8 PM this evening. The NWS experimental HeatRisk index highlights the majority of the area in a Major (3 of 4) risk for heat- related impacts, with some localized pockets of Extreme risk (4 of 4), mainly in areas along and west of Highway 65. Make sure to continue practicing the necessary actions to stay safe from the heat. Drink plenty of water, stay inside in air- conditioned areas if possible, and remember to check on those who may be more vulnerable to heat- related illnesses. A subtle shortwave is progged to push across the area later this afternoon, bringing 15-20% chance of precipitation across the area. With the lack of sufficient forcing in place, confidence in the coverage is fairly limited, and any activity would be more isolated in nature. The better chance (40-70%) of thunderstorms will occur overnight tonight as a more potent shortwave pushes across the region, dragging an associated cold front south through the area. CAMs show isolated thunderstorms developing out ahead of the front during the late evening/overnight hours before the front pushes through with a more-or-less organized line of thunderstorms. Large uncertainties in the southern extent of the severe threat/organized line still exists, however recent guidance has the line reaching the CWA early Wednesday morning. HREF guidance suggests MUCAPE between 1000-1700 J/kg, however shear between 20-30 knots brings more uncertainty in the organization. This leads to the conclusion that any severe thunderstorm would be more isolated to scattered in nature, with lightning, hail up to quarters, and damaging winds up to 60 mph as the primary hazards. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has extended the Slight Risk (2 of 5) further south in the latest update, covering the majority of the CWA to account for this potential. Showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue pushing along the cold front through tomorrow morning before exiting the area by late morning. Some lingering precipitation chances (30-60%) exist primarily southeast of I-44 during the early afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 302 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 With the passage of the cold front ushering in northerly surface winds, more seasonable temperatures are expected on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and reaching the low 90s for far southwest MO and southeast KS. Heat indices will range in the 80s and 90s both days. The ridging pattern will continue to build back up and push east, allowing for the excessive heat to return by the end of the week. By Friday and Saturday, highs will return to the 90s, with heat indices between 100-110. Long range ensembles continue to highlight another upper-level low pushing across the CONUS/Canadian border, bringing another shortwave and associated cold front through the region. This would bring a 30-50% chance of precipitation back into the area Saturday morning, primarily for areas along/north of Highway 60. With this still being several days out, confidence remains low. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast as we get closer to this timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will continue today, but a few pop-up showers and storms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A complex of storms is expected to develop across Iowa this evening, which is then expected to dive southward and may impact the area late this evening into Wednesday morning. There is limited confidence in forecast details related to the thunderstorm potential as there is considerable uncertainty with timing, track, and strength of the complex. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Titus