616
FXUS63 KSGF 291927
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM this evening with Heat
  Index values of 100 to 110.

- Strong to severe storm chances this evening with a Slight
  Risk for severe winds and isolated hail.

- Hot and rainy next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Some lingering clouds remained across portions of the Ozarks
this afternoon from early morning convection. Where clouds
remained, temperatures lagged in the 80s early this afternoon
while areas with little or no cloud cover were in the lower 90s.
With dew points in the 70s, combined with the quickly warming
temperatures, heat index values were in the 95 to 105 degree
range at 1pm. The Heat Advisory that is in effect until 8 PM,
looks on track an will remain until this evening for all of the
Missouri Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas.

Southerly flow will continue into this evening, which was
helping bring the hot and sticky air into the area. This will
also provide the fuel for potential strong to severe storms this
evening into tonight as a cold front is forecast to move south
through the region. Instability this afternoon was increasing
with from 2500-5000 j/kg with ample DCAPE noted as well. As the
front moves through and provides forcing, storms should develop
quickly with the primary concern being damaging winds to 60mph,
though isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms.
CAMS are indicating development from 22-23z with storms
diminishing in intensity by midnight.

The front will continue to slide south through the overnight
hours and is expected to be south of the region, into Arkansas
by sunrise. Cooler air will filter into the area behind the
front which will bring a much more comfortable, though brief,
respite from the heat. Highs Sunday in the 80s and a drier
airmass will be rather nice compared to today.

A shortwave riding over the ridge across the center of the
country, may bring some showers Sunday evening. If that occurs,
areas west of I-49 would have the best shot at light rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Upper ridging will make a return Monday with areas generally
west of Highway 65 climbing to around 90 degrees. Areas to the
east will see one more day of mild weather with highs in the
80s. By Tuesday and through the remainder of next week,
including the 4th of July, temperatures will again become hot
and humid. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on a
daily basis as the upper ridge gets shunted to the southeast
placing the region on the wester edge of the ridge and in
southwesterly flow aloft.

An upper level wave will move across southern Canada and drag a
cold front into the plains and the Ozarks late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. This will bring the potential more
rainfall into the weekend as the front stalls out across the
area and slowly dissipates into Saturday.

With this in mind, the 4th looks showery with some thunder
possible though confidence is limited with rain chances only
from 20-40%. Will monitor through the week to try and hone in
the forecast for the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The region is in the warm and moist air ahead of a cold front
that was north of the area this afternoon. Some lingering clouds
remained from showers and storms last night. As the front
approaches the region, showers and storms are expected to
develop this evening, around the 23-01z timeframe. Where storms
occur, flight conditions will deteriorate quickly becoming MVFR
to IFR.

The front should be south of the Ozarks by early Sunday
morning. However, lingering low (MVFR to low end VFR) ceilings
will remain behind the front into Sunday afternoon.

Surface winds will shift from southerly to northerly this
evening into the morning as the front progresses south through
the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:

July 2:
KSGF: 100/1933
KJLN: 103/2011

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011


Record Low Temperatures:

July 1:
KVIH: 56/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 29:
KSGF: 80/1936

July 2:
KSGF: 76/1933

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Nelson