889
FXUS64 KSHV 171528
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1028 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

No changes needed to the forecast this morning. Water vapor
imagery depicts a very subtle shortwave trough near the LA Coast
which is the remnants of the tropical system Francine, while the
lower levels feature weak high pressure over the Four State region
with a stationary boundary near the Gulf Coast.

Thick low cloud cover will lift and scatter some through the
afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies likely to prevail over much of
the area through the rest of today. Plentiful low level moisture
and some weak lift in the vicinity of Francine`s remnants will
still allow for the development of isolated showers across mainly
the eastern half of the CWA. Coverage will be less than yesterday,
with most areas remaining dry. Cloud cover will still limit solar
insolation today, making for high temps in the mid to upper 80s
(clearer skies across Deep East TX will make for slightly warmer
temps near 90).

Previous discussion provides more detail below.

Kovacik


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will shift southward
today near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. Additional rain
chances will be possible across portions of the region, with the
best chances across our South-Central Arkansas counties and all of
our Louisiana parishes. However, models suggest Francine remnants
will get absorb by this evening into a deepening trough across
the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as a surface low moves
into that region out of the Carolinas. With partly to mostly
cloudy skies today, expect slightly below normal temps to remain,
as highs are forecast to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

By Tuesday evening, upper ridging will start to build into the
region in wake of Francine remnants. Clouds should clear out, but
overnight lows will once again fall into the upper 60s to lower
70s. Can`t rule out some patchy fog around daybreak Wednesday
morning. Expect mostly sunny and warmer conditions to return to
the region on Wednesday, with highs climbing into the low to mid
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper ridging is expected to remain in place through early next
week. Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period,
with highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows remaining in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move into early next week, the
ridge will flatten out, as an approaching longwave trough moves
into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies. Long-range progs
suggest the trough could make it into our extreme northern
sections, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor. This would
bring a return in rain chances across portions of Southeast
Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest Arkansas by Tuesday. The remainder
of the area should remain dry, as the ridge is expected to hold
firm over the rest of the region. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Dealing with a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR and LIFR ceilings attm across
our airspace. For the most part, VSBY restrictions are confined
to our NE TX terminals with FG still possible for the next couple
hours at the TYR/GGG and LFK terminals. Look for these lower
ceilings to eventually lift and/or scatter out by mid to late
morning with VFR conditions returning to all terminals during the
late morning and afternoon hours, albeit a little slower at the
ELD and MLU terminals. Look for NE to E winds today generally
under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  72  90  73 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  86  68  89  67 /  20  10  10   0
DEQ  86  66  89  66 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  87  69  90  70 /  20   0   0   0
ELD  85  65  88  65 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  89  71  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  70  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  90  72  92  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13