831
FXUS62 KTAE 271050
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
650 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Finally, a break in the heat, but it comes with a higher chance for
showers and thunderstorms. In fact, a few showers and storms are
already getting going along the Emerald Coast early this morning.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase near the coast this
morning, then spread inland through the late morning and afternoon
as a shortwave approaches the area. Coverage will be greater than
the past few days, bringing much needed rain to the area. Some of
the storms today could be strong to briefly severe, mainly over
the GA counties and the FL Big Bend north of I-10 where there will
be a little more time to destabilize. Deep- layer shear will also
increase to about 15-20 kt in this area, which is sufficient for
severe storms in the summer. There is also ample instability, but
not a lot of DCAPE, so storms in south Georgia and north Florida
would be capable of water-loaded downbursts today. This is where
SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5)
for today due to the threat of locally damaging wind gusts. Storms
should move out of the area early this evening, but additional
showers and storms will develop during the overnight hours near
the Emerald Coast again as the shortwave still slowly moves
through the area.

Thanks to the added cloud cover and beneficial rain, high
temperatures will be quite a bit "cooler" than recent days with
upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Heat index values will still
be around 100-107 given the abundant moisture in place. Lows tonight
will still be muggy as well, settling into the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper level short wave trough and an associated surface feature
will enhance convective coverage on Friday. As these features weaken
or dissipate, PoPs will decrease a bit, but good coverage is still
expected. With WMSI expected to be lower today than on Wednesday,
the threat for severe downbursts is lower. As for temps, the
convective coverage and associated cloud cover should keep max temps
close to seasonal averages on Friday. Nevertheless, some inland
locations in Florida could flirt with heat advisory criteria with
heat indices around 108 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper ridge will retrograde westward during this period putting
the area in a northwest flow regime. This will help to drive another
frontal boundary into the area by early next work week, increasing
PoPs once again. Heat indices look to reach advisory levels from
U.S. 84 in South GA south across parts of the FL Big Bend on Sunday
with the hottest day appearing to be Monday when an advisory may be
needed for most of our FL counties. Convective coverage will drop
back to seasonal levels for the mid to late part of next week
allowing actual temperatures to rise back into the upper 90s for
many areas. We can`t rule out a few spots reaching 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

TSRA is ongoing at ECP and will soon begin at DHN. This will
spread to the other terminals through the rest of the morning.
MVFR cigs are expected within the storms with low-end VFR outside
of storms. Storms will exit the area around 20-22z with VFR
conditions afterward. Another round of TSRA will begin developing
around 06z near ECP and up to DHN by 09z. Additionally, MVFR to
IFR cigs will develop near VLD and ABY after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The rip current risk looks to remain high today and Friday for our
southwest facing beaches, and this elevated risk could persist
through the weekend, once again.

Outside the surf zone, moderate west to southwest winds will persist
with some weakening in wind speeds expected by the weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

South to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph combined with
increasingly high dispersions each day will result in spreading
pockets of high dispersions each day. Showers and thunderstorms will
be likely starting near the coast this morning, then spreading
inland in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms today could
be strong to briefly severe with strong gusty winds being the
primary threat. We`ll repeat the high rain chances Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

There are no flooding concerns at this time outside of localized
nuisance flooding caused by slow-moving storms each afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  76  90  76 /  60  30  90  20
Panama City   87  79  88  79 /  70  60  80  30
Dothan        89  75  90  74 /  70  30  80  20
Albany        90  75  91  74 /  60  30  80  20
Valdosta      93  76  93  75 /  60  40  70  20
Cross City    90  77  92  76 /  50  30  80  30
Apalachicola  88  80  88  80 /  60  50  80  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM....Wool
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Wool