602
FXUS62 KTBW 281128
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Light southwesterly flow for the area through tonight. Winds will
increase slightly this afternoon, remaining below 10 knots. Coastal
shower and storm activity this morning will move inland later this
morning and afternoon. VFR conditions are expected with MVFR to IFR
conditions possible in storms with decreased visibility and lower
cigs. Light and variable winds overnight, turning southeast Saturday
morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Light S/SW flow in place this morning will become more SW and
increase to around 10 mph this afternoon. Morning showers are in
place across the coastal waters and onshore of the
Manatee/Sarasota/Charlotte coastline. Storms will increase in
coverage across the area through the late morning and afternoon
and pushing to the east coast around sunset. Highs this afternoon
in the lower to mid 90s with HIs reaching 100-105, and lows
tonight in the mid 70s to around 80 at the coast. The high
pressure ridge axis is starting to lift north today and will be in
place across the area through the weekend and into next week as a
frontal boundary settles across the northern FL border and
dissipates through mid- week. With the ridge axis meandering
across the area through this period, winds will generally be
light, with generally SE flow but afternoon sea breezes really
dominating the flow. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will
be possible each day, and temperatures will remain in the lower
to mid 90s for highs with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon
heat indices reaching 100-105 each day as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  94  79 /  60  30  60  40
FMY  93  77  94  77 /  50  20  70  30
GIF  94  76  94  76 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  92  78  95  77 /  50  20  60  40
BKV  93  75  94  75 /  60  30  60  40
SPG  91  81  92  80 /  60  30  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery