763
FXUS62 KTBW 260043
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
843 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

No change to the existing forecast reasoning with no adjustments
made for the evening update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Florida is sitting in a neutral location with upper ridging south
and west of Florida, while upper troughing persists north of the
area. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into
the central Gulf of Mexico. This is producing a light predominant
onshore westerly flow over the region. This pattern will continue
through the end of the week. Slow moving showers and storms continue
to fire up over the coastal region and eastern gulf waters. With a
light onshore flow, these showers and storms will slowly move over
the coastal region and further traverse inland through the afternoon
and evening hours. Some of these slow moving showers and storms
could produce some localized flooding in heavy downpours.

By Sunday morning, the Atlantic ridge will shift slightly northward,
while high pressure remains in the central Gulf of Mexico. This will
bring some south-southeast winds over the east coast, but light
onshore winds will also be possible over the west coast and eastern
gulf waters. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible
each day through the period. Daytime highs will top out in the low
to mid 90`s and overnight lows in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Similar reasoning as previous cycle - VFR expected to prevail
outside of thunderstorms. Slight chance of a storm for the next
hour or two before activity winds down for the evening. Continued
W-SW flow will support morning into early afternoon convection
again on Wednesday before shifting inland and east of terminals
through the afternoon and into the evening. Light and variable to
west winds overnight increase to westerly 7-10 knots during the
morning, highest during afternoon, before diminishing during the
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A light pressure gradient remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
for the next few days. This is producing a light onshore flow with
winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less through the end of
the week. Daily showers and storms will be possible each day through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Pretty typical summertime pattern continues over the area with
abundant moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered
showers and isolated storms expected each day through the end of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  91  80  90 /  30  30  40  50
FMY  77  90  78  91 /  20  50  20  40
GIF  75  92  75  93 /  30  30  30  60
SRQ  78  91  79  90 /  30  40  30  50
BKV  74  92  75  91 /  20  20  40  50
SPG  82  91  82  90 /  30  30  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis