Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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963 FXUS64 KTSA 250842 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today & Tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Upper level ridging begins to slide westward this morning, becoming increasingly centered over the Four Corners region. This brings NW flow aloft to our area... gradually becoming more north-south oriented by late tonight/ Wed morning as the ridge expands northward and an embedded shortwave passes over the region. At the surface, lee troughing will maintain S-SW flow through the day with warmer temps focused W of Hwy 75 in N OK. A frontal boundary in the C Plains will tend to sag south through the day & this evening before moving through the CWA late tonight/ tomorrow. All in all, another hot day is in store for the region with heat indices again climbing into Advisory territory (105-109 deg) for all of E OK & NW AR. It appears the heat will be most intense today along and west of Hwy 75 in N OK and heat indices may even approach warning criteria here. Coverage of heat indices greater than 110 are expected to remain isolated enough to preclude warning issuance at this time... though this will need to be monitored for the morning update. Aside from the heat, CAMs/ HREF neighborhood probabilities support at least 20-30% PoPs across N-Central OK in association with a subtle vort max. Coverage (and resulting QPF) remains uncertain but would expect any ongoing storms to move south-southeast and weaken with time this evening. Additional storm chances arrive later tonight into Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave & frontal boundary move south, with the greatest impacts expected in far E OK & NW AR. With adequate shear and instability, storms this afternoon and later tonight into Wednesday may become marginally severe and produce damaging outflow winds (and perhaps some hail this afternoon). && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Predominantly "chance" PoPs persist for far E OK/ NW AR Wednesday morning and afternoon to account for any ongoing convection & redevelopment along the front during the day. Another wave is forecast to move across C Plains Wednesday night into Thursday with additional precip chances north and west of our area. Currently do not expect this activity to impact our CWA, but this will need to be watched as additional short term guidance becomes available for the coming forecasts. Otherwise, low PoPs return this weekend as another frontal boundary attempts to influence the region. Positive height anomalies expand back into our area next week. Regarding the heat... opted to issue another Heat Advisory on Wednesday for parts of E OK and W-Central AR as heat indices are again forecast to climb between 105-110 degrees. Convection may complicate things, especially across AR counties, but with heat indices forecast to approach warning criteria if left undisturbed in the pre-frontal environment, felt an advisory was appropriate. Thursday will feature slightly lower heat index values with drier (and slightly cooler) air behind the front. However the intense heat returns Friday into the weekend with increasing potential for additional heat headlines. Above average temps are expected into next week with highs in the 90s/ lower 100s and lows mainly in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Sfc wind gusts between 15z-00z of 20-25 kts at all sites except KFSM and KBVO. Otherwise, VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the valid period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 78 99 74 / 10 30 20 0 FSM 99 78 97 76 / 10 20 50 10 MLC 97 78 97 74 / 0 20 30 10 BVO 99 73 96 69 / 20 30 10 0 FYV 96 72 93 69 / 10 20 50 0 BYV 96 71 91 68 / 10 30 60 0 MKO 96 77 96 73 / 10 20 30 10 MIO 96 73 93 69 / 10 40 30 0 F10 96 76 97 72 / 10 20 20 10 HHW 95 76 96 75 / 10 20 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>057- 059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...23