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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
771 FXUS65 KTWC 262052 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 152 PM MST Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Southeast Arizona will continue to see enough moisture for a daily chance of thunderstorms into next week. Some storms will generate strong winds and locally heavy rain. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active weather as additional moisture will likely move into the area. && .DISCUSSION...20Z radar scans show some isolated thunderstorms developing over the Chiricahuas and the Huachucas mountains. They are struggling a bit due to the warm midlevel leading to unfavorable midlevel lapse rates in the region. The better areas of thunderstorms are still along the international border and some areas in the high mountains within Santa Cruz and Cochise County. This low storm activity will continue throughout the rest of the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. Southeast Arizona may experience few of those outflows to help cool off from the hot day in the late evening. The CAMS still show potential for an organized storm just south of the border to produce some more outflows in the later night. Thunderstorm chances will remain everyday through the rest of the week, mainly south and east of Tucson. High Pressure Center will be shifting back to the east to be in a better position to bring in a little more moisture across Southeast Arizona. Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend for most of the region. Next week, showers and thunderstorm chances will remain high through most of the week. CPC 6-10 Day Outlook shows 60-70% likely above normal for rain amounts. This trend can continue into the new month due the placement of the high pressure center. Otherwise, hot temperature still remain. && .AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z. Current FEW-SCT 50-70 kft and SCT-BKN 100-140 kft AGL thru the forecast period. Isolated-scattered -TSRA thru 27/03Z with brief MFR conditions possible near storms. SFC winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period, except for gusty outflow winds from storms. KSAD and the Upper Gila Valley can gust up to 30 kts thru 26/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms. Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible. Stronger erratic outflows with some thunderstorms. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson