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FXUS61 KAKQ 261730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
130 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches the area this evening and crosses the
region tonight into Thursday, bringing the a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region late
Thursday through the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late this
  afternoon into tonight, with a few storms potentially being
  strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary threat.

- Some beneficial rain is likely across northern portions of
  the area, although it will be hit and miss due to the nature
  of the storms.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows quasi-zonal flow over the Mid-
Atlantic with an upper trough over the Great Lakes (extending south
into the mid-MS River Valley). At the surface, high pressure is
centered off the Carolina coast with a lee trough across VA. There
is a cold front which is still well to our NW. Temperatures
have risen into the 90s area-wide, with dew pts in the mid-upper
60s inland/lower-mid 70s near the coast. Heat indices are
generally 100-104F, but have seen a couple of spots near the SE
VA coast touch 105F. Skies are partly to mostly sunny with a
10-15 mph SW wind.

Forecast soundings show that the boundary layer remains capped prior
to some height falls arriving this evening and especially tonight.
Still think that a few tstms will develop in the higher elevations
of W/NW VA near that lee trough by 3-5 PM and push into NW portions
of the area by early evening. Expect tstms to actually become more
widespread after 7-8 PM as the better height falls arrive. Any storm
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts given very strong
sfc heating, a deep well mixed boundary layer, and some mid-level
drying. In fact, forecast soundings from most models continue to show
DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg through this evening. Storms
will likely be ongoing (mainly along/N of I-64) through ~3 AM
(though the severe threat diminishes after 12-1 AM) as a 30-40
kt southwesterly LLJ may help the convection hold on a bit
longer than we normally see. There are hints that the convection
may get a bit farther south than previously expected. Still,
locations south of a Farmville-Petersburg- Norfolk line will
likely see little to no rain through Thursday morning, with
localized rain totals in excess of 1" likely north of I-64.
Could definitely see a few totals of 2" across northern portions
of the FA. Convection gradually diminishes in coverage early
Thu AM. Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thursday
afternoon-evening.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to
redevelop along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest
chc across SE VA and NE NC. High temperatures return to
seasonally hot levels ranging from the mid 80s to near 90F.
Shower/tstms largely dissipate or move to our south by late
Thursday evening, although some isolated activity could linger
into the early overnight hours over southern VA. High pressure
builds across New England Thursday night into Friday following
the frontal passage. Lows Thursday night fall into the mid
60s-lower 70s. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower
to mid 80s along the coast, and seasonally hot inland with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and
potentially more humid.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

Surface high pressure initially settles off the coast Friday
night into early Saturday, with some moisture returning as a
weak warm front lifts through the area. Therefore, there is a
slight chc to low chc of showers and perhaps a tstm from central
VA and the Piedmont to the MD Eastern Shore Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Lows Friday night are mainly in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Otherwise, the heat builds back over the
local area this weekend as high pressure settles off the
Southeast coast. Another upper trough and cold front approach
the area from the NW late this weekend, and the cold front is
progged to cross the area Sunday night. Forecast high
temperatures are mainly in the mid 90s on both Saturday and
Sunday, with aftn dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s (mid 70s
mainly toward the coast) during peak heating on both days. This
is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS guidance, but
is below the mid/upper 70s shown by the NBM (which is likely
too high especially given how dry it has been). Resultant heat
indices are in the upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and then
potentially 105-109F for much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to
widely scattered tstms are possible on Saturday afternoon
(mainly W of I-95), with a better chc of showers/tstms later
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the cold front drops
through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat is possible
early next week in the wake of the cold front as the 00z/26 EPS
and GEFS each depict below average 850mb temperature anomalies
Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble guidance also surges
the heat back into the region by the middle of next week just
prior to Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR/mainly dry with SCT cumulus through 22-00z. A cold front
then approaches from the NW this evening and drops into the
region tonight. There is a 40-60% chc of evening/overnight
tstms at RIC/SBY, a 30-40% chc at ORF/PHF, and a 15-20% chc at
ECG. The most likely timing for tstms is between 00-06z at
RIC/SBY, and from 03-08z at PHF/ORF. A few tstms could produce
strong wind gusts (to 30-50 kt) along with brief IFR/LIFR flight
restrictions in heavy rain. Overall coverage of showers/tstms
diminishes after 06z/2 AM. Some MVFR stratus is possible between
08-15z Thursday morning, but CIGs should otherwise remain VFR
through the period.

This front will be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE
Thursday with a 30-50% chc of redeveloping aftn/early evening
showers/tstms (highest at ECG...with lower chances at ORF).
High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.
There is another decent chance for showers/tstms later Sunday
into Sunday night.
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&&

.MARINE...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure will slide farther out to sea today. Early this
morning, winds were SW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in nrn
portions of the waters. SCAs remain in effect for the 630/631
zns of the Ches Bay until 7 am. SW winds mainly 5-15 kt later
this morning, will become S and increase to 10-20 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt by late this aftn into this evening in advance of a
cold front. Waves will build to 2-3 ft in the Bay, and seas will
build to 3-4 ft in the coastal waters. 4-5 ft seas will be
possible for a brief period north of Parramore Island. So, will
likely have SCA conditions again near the mouth of the Bay, and
portions of the coastal waters from early this evening to around
midnight. That weakening cold front will push through the region
late tonight into Thu aftn. NE winds expected late Thu night
through Fri morning, then E and SE winds for Fri aftn into Sat
morning, as high pressure slides by to the north then off the
srn New England coast. Low rip current risk is forecast for
all beaches today and Thu.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JDM/TMG