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771
FXUS61 KALY 151029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region for the weekend. Expect
plenty of sun and seasonable temperatures before a prolonged
period of hot and humid weather arrives for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few clouds in the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills that
will break up through the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny and
occasionally breezy. Highs in the 70s with near 80 mid Hudson
Valley and some 60s in higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly clear tonight with light to calm winds will allow for
radiational cooling and lows in the 40s with some upper 30s in
parts of the southern Adirondacks. Low level ridging overhead
early Sunday will build east later Sunday. Light south winds
will develop Sunday afternoon, under a mostly sunny sky. Warm
advection will begin later Sunday as well. Highs Sunday in the
70s with near 80 mid Hudson Valley and around 70 higher terrain.

Upper impulse tracks around the northern periphery of amplifying
upper ridging building into our region Later Sunday night and
Monday. Most of the moisture, upper dynamics, and low level jet
forcing tracks near the U.S./Canada border, suggesting any
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity should pass north.

Although, some clouds and convective debris may spread into our
region at times that could filter the sun on Monday. Steady
surface winds from the south to southwest and boundary layer
winds from the west, along with rapid warm advection from the
west, will help temperatures warm well into the 80s Monday, with
near 90 in the Hudson Valley from the Capital Region and points
south. Near 90 possible in the western Mohawk Valley, too.

Continued warm advection along with rising surface dew points
Monday night as upper ridging continues to amplify and
strengthen. Lows early Tuesday morning in the mid to upper 60s
with some lower 60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase for a prolonged period of hot and
humid weather across the region throughout the long term period.
Model agreement remains high that a broad area of upper ridging,
including a closed region of high pressure with 500 hPa heights at
nearly 600 dam in both deterministic and ensemble guidance, will
remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic through at least midweek.
While these values may represent only a +2 to +3 sigma anomaly per
NAEFS output, the latest forecast is outside of the CFSR model
climatology for late June, indicating anomalies of this magnitude
have not likely occurred at this time of year in at least the last
three decades. In fact, per SPC sounding climatology at Albany, a
500 hPa height of 600 dam or more has only been observed once (00Z
August 23, 2002).

All this is to say that conditions will remain hot and largely dry
throughout the period, with afternoon highs reaching the 80s to low
90s in high terrain and mid to upper 90s at lower elevations through
at least Thursday. While the forecast does not currently include any
values in the triple digits, a few valley locations exceeding 100
degrees remains a distinct possibility. With surface high pressure
initially located to the east over the North Atlantic, low-level
southerly flow will aid in raising dewpoints into the mid 60s to low
70s, yielding muggy conditions. This high humidity will support
overnight lows remaining very mild as well, as temperatures only
fall into the mid 60s to low 70s across the region each night,
failing to provide much relief from the heat. High temperatures and
humidity together may additionally result in dangerously high heat
indices reaching 100 to 110 degrees for most valley locales Tuesday
through Thursday.

As the upper ridge flattens somewhat Wednesday and beyond, there
remain some indications that isolated diurnal thunderstorms may
affect the region, with any enhanced cloud cover or precipitation
also serving to potentially reduce maximum temperatures. Upper
ridging may finally begin to weaken and give way to more zonal flow
Friday into the weekend, potentially providing some gradual relief
from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Largely VFR conditions expected through the
period. A wind shift boundary continuing to slowly sag southward
across the region will see clearing skies in its wake. At POU, which
will remain south of the boundary through 09-10Z Sat, elevated low-
level moisture beneath clearing skies may result in patchy fog/mist,
resulting in periods of MVFR vsbys. As the low levels dry out closer
to sunrise, conditions will return to VFR. Elsewhere north of the
boundary, VFR conditions will persist as skies clear by 12Z Sat.
Diurnal fair wx cu at 4-6 kft will develop after 16-18Z Sat, before
again clearing by the evening after 00Z Sun.

Light north to northwest winds at 3-6 kt north of the wind shift
boundary at ALB/GFL/PSF will continue through the overnight period,
increasing to 5-10 kt after 09-10Z Sat. To the south at POU, calm to
light and variable winds will continue until the boundary passes by
09-10Z Sat, when light northerly winds will develop. All terminals
will see north to northwest winds of 8-12 kt potentially gusting
around 20 kt through the morning, from 12-18Z Sat, before gusts
begin to subside with sustained winds of 6-10 kt. Speeds continue to
diminish to 5 kt or less through the evening after 00Z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard