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243
FXUS61 KALY 241426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will bring much cooler temperatures,
breezy conditions and isolated to scattered showers today.  High
pressure will build in tonight with clearing skies, diminishing
clouds, cool and pleasant weather.  Fair and dry weather continues
on Tuesday with above normal temperatures returning, as a cold front
will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms back into the region
for the mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1026 AM EDT...Surface cold front continues to push
eastward and is now exiting far eastern New England. In the wake
of the front, west to southwesterly winds have allowed much
less humid air to move into the region. Dewpoints have fallen
into the 50s across the area according to NYS mesonet and ASOS
observations. In addition, visible satellite imagery shows
fairly widespread stratocu clouds, as cooler air aloft and some
lake enhancement is allowing for a mostly cloudy sky over the
entire area.

The mid and upper low over the eastern Great Lakes Region and
southeast Canada will impact the forecast area this afternoon
with more clouds than sunshine. The cold pool to the low will
allow isolated to scattered showers to form. The showers will be
more numerous over the Adirondack Park, the western Mohawk
Valley and the northern Catskills. The instability showers will
linger through the afternoon, as the cyclonic vorticity
advection persists.

Temps and humidity levels will be much lower than the previous
several days. A strong sfc pressure gradient will allow for
breezy conditions with west to northwest winds of 10-20 mph with
some gusts 25-35 mph. Max temps were accepted close to an
NBM/ECM MOS/GFS MOS blend with lower to mid 70s in the
valleys and upper 50s to upper 60s over the hill towns and
mtns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...High pressure ridges in from the Ohio Valley and the
Piedmont Region. The skies will clear and the winds will
diminish for some ideal radiational cooling for late June. Lows
will fall into the 50s with some upper 40s over the southern
Adirondacks and the southern Greens.

Tuesday will be a nice day with the sfc anticylone moving east
of the Mid Atlantic Region. Low and mid level warm advection
will begin. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with some
cirrus increasing ahead of a warm front. H850 temps rise back
above normal. Humidity levels should not be too bad with
dewpoints in the 50s. Max temps will rise back above normal with
85 to 90F readings in the valleys and 70s to lower 80s over the
mtns. The 90F readings will be mainly in the mid Hudson River
Valley.

A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
Region Tue night. Clouds will increase, as some isolated to
scattered showers will be possible overnight north and west of
the Capital Region. Some of the guidance is showing some weak
elevated instability, as we did include a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the western Mohawk Valley and southern Dacks.
Temps will be milder than the preceding day with upper 50s to
mid 60s over most of the region with some upper 60s over the mid
Hudson Valley.

Wed-Wed night...unsettled weather returns to eastern NY and
western New England, as pre-frontal trough and a cold front
will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms. Instability
still varies on the guidance. The 0-6 km shear increases
especially at 700-500 hPa layer in the afternoon into the early
evening as a wave may move along the front. Sfc dewpoints rise
back into the lower to mid 60s. Even with MLCAPEs of 500-1500
J/kg, some organized deep convection looks possible. SPC has
added most of the area to a Marginal Risk...with a small areas
(eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley) in a Slight Risk in
the new Day 3 Outlook. This looks reasonable with a potential
for isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms. We will highlight in the HWO and a IDSS one
pager. Damaging winds and if lapse rates steepen...large hail
will be the main threats. PWATS on the NAEFS do increase 1 to 2
STDEVs above normal, so some locally heavy rain will be
possible. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s west of the
Hudson River Valley and Lake George, as well as across southern
VT and mid 80s to lower 90s over the rest of the region. Heat
indices may flirt with 95F readings in the mid Hudson River
Valley, so a Heat Advisory maybe needed later, if confidence
increases. Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue ahead of
the cold front Wed night. They should begin to diminish in the
early morning hours, as sfc ridging attempts to build in from
the west from the Great Lakes Region. Lows in the wake of the
cold front fall back into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Thursday with  the cold front to our
south and a wave of low pressure that developed along the front
tracking into southeast maritime Canada. Behind the front, we will
remain under broad upper troughing with cool air aloft and northwest
flow. It will be much cooler and less humid with highs in the 60s
(terrain) to 70s (valleys) with lower humidly. There could be a few
lingering showers early in the morning, but most of the day will be
dry. High pressure builds  Thursday night into Friday with continued
dry weather. Thursday night will be quite comfortable with lows
ranging from 40s in the high terrain to 50s in the valleys. Friday
will be a touch warmer as heights rise aloft, although highs will
remain mostly in the 70s with a few low 80s towards the I-84
corridor.

Friday night, the surface high moves off to our east and broad upper
ridging amplifies over our region. A warm front lifts northwards
across the region Friday night or Saturday. Lows Friday night will
be mainly in the 50s to low 60s. With the warm front to our north
Saturday, it will be warmer and more humid with highs well into the
80s for the lower elevations.  A series up shortwave disturbances
embedded in broad troughing aloft will help to drive a cold front
southeastwards through our region Saturday afternoon or Sunday,
bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. This is
several days out and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the
timing of the frontal passage, but as is typical for this time of
year will have to monitor for the possibility of some stronger
storms if the front comes through around peak daytime heating
Saturday afternoon.

The front may stall near our region Sunday, so will keep chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms through the day. Temperatures will
depend on where exactly the front stalls, and we will work to refine
this over the coming days as confidence increases. Behind the front,
however, cooler and drier weather is expected across our area once
again. However, the CPC is expecting temperatures for days 8 to 14
to average above normal, with above normal precipitation for this
same timeframe as well.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...All TAF sites remain VFR as of 6:30 AM. We
will likely see borderline MVFR/VFR cigs through the day today, with
SCT to BKN skies becoming BKN to OVC by mid to late morning with
clod bases between 2500 and 3500 ft. Best chance for MVFR cigs will
be at GFL and PSF, with some MVFR possible at ALB. POU should see
VFR cigs and dry conditions through the day. However, GFL/ALB/PSF
may see showers this afternoon with an upper-level disturbance
moving overhead. Will handle with tempo groups, and note that MVFR
cigs and/or vsbys are possible with any showers.

Showers diminish by around sunset this evening, with skies becoming
mostly clear overnight. With high pressure building in we may see
some fog towards daybreak. Highest chance is at GFL where we have
already hinted at it in the TAF, but confidence is too low to
include at the other terminals at this time.

Winds will be from the west at around 10 kt today with gusts up to
25 kt. Winds switch more to the northwest this afternoon, then
become light and variable within a few hours after sunset.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main