-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
708
FXUS61 KBGM 232328
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
728 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the
region today, as a cold front approaches the area. Some storms
may produce damaging winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. The
front will push through the area tonight, bringing relief from
the heat and humidity to start the week. Showers and
thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
625 PM Update...

Scattered storms continue to move across the region. While most
storms will likely remain sub-severe, conditions still look
possible for weak spin ups. PoPs were updated through the late
evening hours. A couple of the CAMs bring another line of
isolated to scattered showers through but others clear out
fairly quickly. The later is more favored and storms wind down
after sunset. Some additional minor touches to the forecast were
needed.

140 PM update...

The surface front is moving into our western regions around
noon with mostly light showers but with instability across much
of CNY into NEPA, these storms will begin to intensify shortly.
With a surface low moving east through the St. Lawrence river
valley today, a low level jet will be present through the day
that will keep low level shear high through the day. Currently
the vertical wind profile from the BGM radar does have some
curvature in the low levels despite some deeper mixing so any
storm that begins to move almost due west to east will be able
to ingest streamwise vorticity increasing its threat for deeper
mesocyclones and potential tornado threat. CAPE will be less
than previous days given the cloud cover but with good shear,
there will be better eviction of the precipitation out of the
updraft helping to support strong storms.

One limiting factor for most of the area west of I-81 is the
line of storms likely helping to stabilize the atmosphere
through peak heating but east of I-81 is seeing good solar
radiation. Surface obs have not had dew points mix down like
some of the CAMs have shown. The Mohawk valley has winds that
are slightly more southern compared to the rest of the area
which is seeing SW surface winds so any storms there will have
access to more surface vorticity and so a better tornado threat
is present there this afternoon.

Surface based cape looks to recover this afternoon across the
Finger Lakes but behind the surface front, winds aloft will be
more linear so if there is a severe threat this evening it will
be more for strait line winds and microburst again with our
second round of convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, with wrap-
around showers and isolated thunder continuing through Monday,
along with noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper-60s to
mid-70s. Tomorrow night the wrap around precipitation comes to
an end as high pressure and ridging begins to return, Depending
on how much we clear out, there is the chance for widespread fog
but kept the forecast limited to the deeper valleys for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes to previous discussion below.

NW flow and cool temps will not stick around for long as the
ridge of high pressure slides eastward and the flow shifts back
to WSWerly Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies during the
morning hours will allow for temps to climb into the mid to
upper 80s by the afternoon. At least the humidity will remain
relatively low, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, so it will not
feel as sweltering as it has this past week. The ridge looks to
be strong enough to stymie an approaching shortwave and push
precipitation north and south of the area during the afternoon
and evening hours.

The ridge looks to break down Tuesday night, allowing some rain
showers to enter the area from the west. Temps will be warm, only
cooling into the mid to upper 60s as SW flow advects more heat and
moisture into the region.

WAA continues through Wednesday morning, pumping in warm and very
moist air. Dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s across the region
as temperatures warm into the 80s, pushing heat indices back into
the 90s. This combined with a trough sliding into the region from
the Great Lakes will give us our next chance for a severe weather
outbreak. Currently, GFS shows 1500-2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE
across the region with 0-6km bulk shear around 30-35kts. A shortwave
currently looks to be the lifting mechanism to help initiate these
storms, but guidance is still working out how it will play out. The
cold front has been trending a little faster, now moving into the
area Wednesday night. We will have to monitor this trend as a cold
front passage in the late afternoon/early evening would increase
severe chances.

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain across the area through the
night as the cold front pushes through, dissipating by the morning
commute. Temps and dewpoints will fall into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Only minor changes to the previous discussion below. Another
cold front with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
should move through next weekend.


A strong ridge will build in behind the cold front passing
through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. NW flow
through the day on Thursday will push drier air into the region,
with dewpoints falling through the day, bottoming out in the low
50s with temps in the 70s. The ridge axis slides east of us on
Friday, warming us back up for the end of the work week and the
weekend. Rain chances should hold off till Saturday as temps
rise back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the
region. Unless one were to pass over a terminal, all sites are
expected to be VFR for at least the next couple of hours. Late
this evening, ceilings begin to drop from the north and Fuel Alt
to MVFR ceilings are expected at all CNY terminals through the
morning and most of the daytime hours on Monday. Guidance wants
to go as low as IFR at some terminals but confidence was too low
to take ceilings that low. Ceilings are also expected to drop
to MVFR at AVP, but not until around 18z on Monday. Wrap around
moisture from today`s system will bring showers to CNY tomorrow.
The best chances are at ITH, SYR, and RME. Visibilities may be
reduced at these terminals as well.

Winds will remain quite gusty throughout the next 24 hours as
they become northwesterly by Monday afternoon. Peak gusts will
range from 15 to 25 kts throughout most of this TAF period.
Model soundings and some guidance hint at low-level wind shear
at BGM and AVP between 00z and 03z, so it was added for this
update.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR likely, except possible
valley fog Tuesday morning.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC/MWG
LONG TERM...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...BTL