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335
FXUS62 KILM 201955
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
355 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Onshore movement of showers and possibly a thunderstorm will
occur late tonight into Friday as a result of a tropical wave
tracking across the SW Atlantic, moving onshore well south of
the local forecast area. A warming trend will begin Saturday,
with an extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal
convection through the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure centered to the northeast over the western
Atlantic will continue to slowly shift eastward through Friday as a
tropical disturbance passes westward well to the south. Moisture
will be on the increase tonight and we could see some showers
reaching the coast late, especially in SC. Shower chances, and
possibly even some rumbles of thunder, will increase a bit Friday as
the surface trough extending north from the low to the south pushes
through the area. Could see a little fog develop inland late tonight
but the increasing low-level flow should prevent
significant/widespread visibility restrictions. Lows tonight should
be in the mid to upper 60s away from the warmer coastal areas,
although possibly a bit colder in the normally colder areas like
Holly Shelter. Highs Friday should range from the mid to upper 80s
east to lower 90s west, about normal for this time of year near the
coast and a bit warmer than normal inland.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Low level trough or tropical wave will track inland across the
Southeast while weakening and dissipating as it hits the upper
level ridge and drier air in place across the Carolinas into Fri
night. As the trough moves inland it will kick winds around
from E-NE to SE to S with Bermuda High becoming dominant feature
into the weekend and beyond. Overall, will see an increase in
humidity with richer dewpoint air in place in southerly return
flow on Saturday. With that being said, the mid to upper levels
remain under the influence of ridge over the Southeast, but it
weakens a bit on Sat with limited shower activity, with best
chance over the Pee Dee or south of our local area. H5 Heights
will begin a downward trend and upper level ridge weakens a
bit, but 850 temps will be on the rise with warmer and moister
southerly return flow producing warmer overnight temps in the
70s Fri night and Sat night and temps reaching into the 90s away
from the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The mid to upper ridge becomes suppressed farther south and west over
the Deep south as a low pressure system tracks across the Great
Lakes into Sunday. Although this front does not make it into the
Carolinas until Mon, moisture will increase in deeper southerly
flow. Soundings show moisture up through 12k ft or so by Sun
morning with pcp water values up near 2 inches along the coast.
The ridge will begin to weaken and this combined with the
increasing moisture and more defined Piedmont trough, as well as
local effects of sea breeze and any boundaries, to produce
better chance of convection Sun, but more so on Mon as the mid
to upper trough pushes cold front eastward with better upper
dynamics in place. The weakening front will approach overnight
Mon into Tues shifting winds to the W-NW briefly inland mainly
with some drier air through the column making it into the I-95
corridor, but the front will dissipate and by afternoon with sea
breeze and Bermuda High dominating, winds will come back around
to the south. Should see less convection though.

Heat indices should reach over 100 inland on Sun and by Mon may
reach Heat Advisory thresholds on Mon, but will have to see how
much cloud cover or convection will get in the way. Either way,
above normal temps will arrive over the weekend and continue
through at least Wed before a more substantial front crosses the
area We night into Thurs.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in generally VFR conditions through 18Z Friday.
MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and vsbys from low clouds/fog are
possible late tonight, then MVFR ceilings/vsbys are possible
from ceilings/showers after about 12Z (mainly near the coast at
KILM/KCRE/KMYR). Otherwise, gusts will be near 20 kt, mainly
during the daytime near the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and late night
low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
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Through Friday...The pressure gradient will remain slightly
enhanced across the area between high pressure to the north and
low pressure to the south. Winds will gust to near 20 kt into
early Friday before improving while seas peak up to 6 ft,
especially off the Georgetown Co coast. Although the Small Craft
Advisory north of Murrells Inlet is more marginal, we`ll
continue it a bit longer given some uncertainty in how seas
respond to the low pressure trying to strengthen a bit to the
south.

Friday night through Tuesday...A surface trough will continue
its inland trek turning winds from a more easterly direction to
a more S-SW direction by Sat as Bermuda High becomes dominant
into the weekend. This will begin a prolonged period of S-SW
winds into early next week. The onshore push and higher seas
will diminish as winds shift to a more southerly direction Fri
night into the weekend. Seas will be close to the 3 to 4 ft
range with diminishing E-SE swell through the weekend. Expect an
increase in winds on Mon as front pushes into the Carolinas
producing a tighter gradient. Winds up to 15 to 20 kts on Mon
will diminish as this will be short lived as front dissipates
over inland Carolinas and Bermuda High dominates again on Tues.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building ESE swell and upcoming full
moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) Friday.
A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for Pender, New
Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County beaches, as well as Ocean
Isle Beach west in Brunswick, with high rip risk potentially
continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick
county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to
west longshore currents today, with a moderate risk of rip
currents due to strength of the swell - although longshore
current is expected to make rip current formation difficult.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...