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614
FXUS61 KILN 171858
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid air over the region will bring another day of
scattered thunderstorm activity on Tuesday afternoon. Slightly
drier air will make an appearance over the region on Thursday
but the hot airmass will remain entrenched through at least the
end of the work week, possibly into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday evening.

Scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening will
quickly diminish with the setting sun. Lingering cloud cover
will be slower to decrease overnight with some higher AS clouds
expected to the prevalent sky cover.

Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s will be warmest in west
central Ohio and coolest in the southeast and Hocking Hills.
This will not provide any relief from the ongoing heat wave.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Another hot and muggy day is in store for Tuesday with heat
indicies peaking near 100 degrees for most locations.

The area of high pressure will continue to expand westward
resulting in a slightly lower chance of storms in the afternoon
and early evening.

Min temperatures will be a little warmer than what`s expected
tonight, closer to 75 for most of the CWA.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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With a large and slow moving area of high pressure centered to
the east, heat continues to be the main concern during the long
term. For Wednesday through Sunday, highs in the mid and upper
90s combined with dewpoints around 70 will produce peak apparent
temperatures ranging from 100 to 104. Overnight lows in the 70s
will only provide limited help. Based on those forecast model
predictions, our office has issued a heat advisory that is in
effect through Friday. Extending the heat advisory through next
weekend appears strongly possible. At some point, if apparent Ts
are forecast to go above 104, we will need to upgrade to an
excessive heat warning. There is relief on the horizon when an
upper trough and cold front bring an end to the extreme heat
next Monday, with highs retreating to the mid and upper 80s.

Chances for abatement from the heat due to precip appear to be
low. There is a chance for a few thunderstorms on Wednesday, and
again on Sunday ahead of the cold front. A better chance for
measurable precip will be on Sunday night and Monday surrounding
the cold frontal passage.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered convection is initiating over the CWA attm and should
impact all terminals with exception of CVG/LUK over the next two
hours, at least in a VCTS capacity. Conditions will remain VFR
with a 5-6kft cloud base and 100-120kft elevated mixed layer
that will also be noticeable downstream from any activity this
afternoon.

CVG/LUK will be put back in the equation in short order this
afternoon as upstream cu field over nrn KY is showing
redevelopment in the air that has not been worked over. Notable
increase in the lower 4-5kft deck from vis satellite north and
northeast of metro Cincy and another s and se of Dayton looks to
be the indication of the mixed lower level air being lifted to
form today`s showers and storms. Attm, little lightning is noted
between ILN and DAY, but increased activity for both
shower/storms and lightning is expected through the early
evening hours.

Tomorrow shows a similar setup with slightly less activity noted
in the bulk of the models. Did not include any mention as there
is not any particular site that has either an increased or a
decreased threat at this moment in time to be able to reliably
produce a better forecast.

Winds will remain at or below 10 kts out of the south-southwest
through the taf period. Tomorrow`s sky/wind does not look to be
unsimilar than overnight forecast once convective activity
ends, so no additional FM groups were appended.

Expect KLUK potential for some BR and reduced vsbys towards
daybreak will lessen with future forecasts given a larger
forecast dewpoint depression.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Franks