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422
FXUS62 KMHX 162249
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
649 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure dominates into next week resulting in dry and
warm conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 650 PM Sunday...No significant changes needed to the
previous forecast for eve update. Quiet conditions continue
tonight due to the strong ridge building in. Lows across the
coastal plain will be mild in the low to mid 60s while the OBX
will be in the comfortable upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered high
clouds may pass through, but decent decoupling is still
expected, resulting in lows leaning towards the lower end of
guidance. A lack of moisture should prevent impactful fog
development.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Strong ridging and easterly flow continues
for Monday, with highs in the upper 80s inland, and near 80 for
beaches. Dewpoints will be a tad bit higher Monday compared to
today, but will still be pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week, then
heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the
weekend.

Monday night through Wednesday...Strong ridging will build over
the eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain-
free weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC
initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across
the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly
flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in
fact quite pleasant. Have bumped temps down a good 5 degrees or
so for Tue, as highs now expected in the mid-upr 80s interior,
to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very tolerable, and
remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to the region,
with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast, to low 70s
beaches and OBX zones. RH`s will be in the upper 30s to 40s each
day and could lead to marginal fire weather concerns, though
lack of strong winds will limit this from being more of a threat
even with the lack of rain recently.

Thursday through Saturday...There are still notable differences
in the long range models, but the consensus is that low pres
will develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the
Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will slide
eastward a bit, allowing for more of a serly flow to develop and
bring inc heat and humidity starting Thu. PoPs remain below
mentionable Thursday, though by Fri into the weekend, some
chance of a return to typical afternoon/early evening sea breeze
convection. Even so, only 20% pops advertised, as no strong
forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps will be
on the rise, towards 90 on Thur, and into the 90s Fri into the
weekend. TD`s will rise steadily as well, and a potential for
heat indices into the upr 90s to low 100s by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 650 PM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period as strong ridging builds in. Dry air should limit fog
development overnight. Few to scattered high clouds through the
period with sct diurnal cu.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 650 PM Sunday...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting
to 20 kt across the outer central and southern waters, with seas
2-4 ft. Monday winds will decrease a bit, with sustained
east/northeasterly winds near 10 kts and gusts near 15 kts.
Waves 2-4ft.

LONG TERM /Mon night through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure
anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of
10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be
2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the
Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week.
Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft
Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CQD/TL/RJ
MARINE...CQD/TL/RJ