-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
744
FXUS61 KOKX 250306
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1106 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure pushes off the northern New England coast with
high pressure building in tonight. The high shifts south of the
area Tuesday followed by a warm front Tuesday night. A cold
front approaches the region on Wednesday, moving through into
Thursday morning. High pressure then returns from the Great
lakes Thursday into Friday, before sliding offshore this weekend
as a frontal system approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Any shower activity to the north and northwest has waned with
nightfall with just some bkn and sct clouds. The upper level
trough axis shifts east, thus a dry night ahead with lightening
winds as low pressure near the Maine coast exits and high
pressure over the Midwest builds closer.

W-WNW gusts will diminish through the next several hours, but
may remain gusty near the coast for much of the night. The
pressure gradient will relax further early Tuesday morning as
high pressure builds in from the west.

Clouds will slowly clear from W to E with lows falling into the
lower 60s inland and middle and upper 60s elsewhere. A
comfortable night with dew points in the 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave ridging builds over the northeast on Tuesday with the
core of the surface high settling over the southeast. This will
allow the flow to become W-SW through the day. Most of the area
will see highs in the middle to upper 80s, but the usual warmer
NE NJ and NYC metro will observe highs around 90 degrees. Dew
points will remain in the 50s with potential for readings to mix
into the low 50s in the usual warmer spots. While actual air
temperatures may touch the low 90s in the NYC metro, the low
humidity will make it feel a few degrees lower in the upper 80s.

The ridge flattens as it moves offshore Tuesday evening. The
next shortwave will begin amplifying over the Lakes Tuesday
night as it begins to approach. A warm front should begin
lifting towards the area, but there is no appreciable support
aloft and have left the forecast dry through day break
Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will be milder with lows in
the upper 60s and low 70s with middle 70s in the NYC metro.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front
  late Wednesday could become strong to severe and produce
  locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and hail.

* Heat indices may approach 100 degrees in the NYC metro and
  northeast NJ. Cooler, drier conditions return Thursday and Friday.

No significant changes in the long term with this update. Global
guidance continues to remain in fair agreement and the National
Blend of Models was followed closely.

An amplifying northern stream upper trough moves through the
Great Lakes and northeast Wednesday through Thursday with a
surface low tracking across southeastern Canada. Deep southwest
flow ahead of the system`s cold front will bring a warm and
humid air mass into the region Wednesday. Precipitable water
values approach 2 inches and strong upper lift with CAPE over
1000 J/kg in the afternoon should allow convective development
by late Wednesday into Wednesday night. SPC currently has a
slight risk outlined for portions of the lower Hudson Valley,
with the rest of the region in marginal. The greatest threat
from any stronger thunderstorm would likely be damaging wind
gusts, but large hail and locally heavy rainfall leading to
minor flooding is also a threat into Wednesday night.

In addition to the convective threat, temperatures ahead of the
front on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s across much
of the region away from marine influence. Coupled with the
increasing moisture, heat indices may approach 100 in the
hottest areas, and this may necessitate a heat advisory if these
values hold, particularly in NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro.
Will continue to monitor trends, but this would be short-lived,
as high pressure building in from the Great Lakes will bring a
return to a more tolerable air mass as dew points drop into the
50s.

Another frontal system approaches Saturday with a warm front
moving north, with increased humidity, likely bringing a return
of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west through tonight and
remains through Tuesday.

VFR.

Gusty W/NW winds gradually diminish into the overnight. Gusts
subside and end at most terminals from 04z - 07z. Winds will
remain around 7-10 kt overnight and into Tuesday morning. The
winds will then back to the west towards midday Tuesday and
start to back a bit more to the SW at most terminals late in the
day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind gusts ending tonight may be an hour or so too
soon.
Timing of winds backing may be off by an hour or two on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: VFR with mainly SW winds.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the late afternoon, and likely at night, with MVFR or lower
possible. SW wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers,
then VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remains in effect for all other waters
where gusts 25 to 30 kt persist through 06z as high pressure
begins building towards the waters. Should begin to see the non-
ocean waters fall below 25 kt towards midnight or shortly
thereafter, and the ocean waters getting closer to dawn. Ocean
seas subside tonight and should fall below 5 ft by day break.
Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through Tuesday
night with high pressure in control.

Gusty southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front
Wednesday will likely result in SCA conditions on the ocean
waters, and possible on the south shore bays, Long Island
Sound, and eastern Long Island bays as well. Ocean seas also
build to 5 to 7 ft during this time. Winds begin to subside as
the cold front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday, but
ocean sea remain elevated into Thursday near 5 ft. Winds and
seas then remain below advisory levels on all the forecast
waters Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Tuesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms develop late Wednesday afternoon and
evening ahead of an approaching cold front and could produce locally
heavy downpours that lead to minor flooding, particularly in urban
and poor drainage areas. The risk of flash flooding appears
localized at this time, but cannot be entirely ruled out given a
moist environment.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is in place for all local Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday with low surf and offshore winds.
Increasing southwest winds and seas will result in a high risk
of rip current development on Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...