-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
843
FXUS61 KOKX 240230
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An approaching cold front will move through into early Monday
morning. High pressure will then build from the Midwest, moving
across on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This
front will move across from Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. High pressure will then return for Thursday night
into Friday, and move off the Northeast coast on Saturday as
another cold front begins to approach.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Heat advisory expired at 8 PM and severe tstm watch for Orange
and Putnam was also cancelled at that time. Showers/tstms have
passed mostly east, and should clear the south fork of Long
Island and far SE CT by 11 PM.

An additional round of tstms may move through overnight just
ahead of the front based on some of the CAMs output, and this
will need to be monitored. Left in a slight chance PoP for this.

Another warm night ahead of the boundary with lows mainly in
the 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Behind the fropa, surface high pressure builds in from the
Midwest, offering a dry reprieve from the heat and humidity.
Heights quickly fall as the ridge breaks down and a closed low
trough swings east over New England.

Cooler air mass advects in on the NW flow aloft, and temperatures
in the afternoon top out in the low to mid 80s for most, but
will feel much more tolerable as dew pts fall a good 10 degrees
from Sunday, into the low 60s. Absent a spotty shower well
inland, otherwise a mostly dry day can be expected. Plenty of
diurnal cu is likely to develop though as the cold pool moves
overhead. Monday night is dry, with clearing skies as the
surface high builds closer. Overnight lows in the 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will remain near to just above normal, with Wednesday
  the warmest and most humid day of the period.

* A slow moving cold front may bring locally heavy rainfall from
  late day Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Global ensemble guidance continues to remain in decent agreement for
next week and as such, there has not been much change to the
forecast with this update.  The National Blend of Models was
followed closely.

Shortwave ridging on Tuesday gives way to a more zonal flow by
Wednesday into Thursday. A deepening shortwave trough passes through
the area on Thursday followed by weak ridging again into next
weekend. Much of the week looks to remain dry, save for a frontal
system that approaches from the west Wednesday night into Thursday.
The timing of this feature is perhaps a bit earlier than yesterday
in the global guidance, passing through the region by 12Z Thursday.
Modeled PWATS of close to 2" (near the max for the date from SPC
sounding climo.) along with a weak steering flow aloft would
increase the chances of excessive rainfall for the area as the front
passes through the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday. However,
the probability of more than 1" in 6 hours from the NBM remains less
than 10% for the entire area, perhaps hinting at a more localized
threat.

While high temperatures next week will be in the upper 80s and low
90s, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will limit the excessive
heat/heat index potential. High temperatures on Wednesday look to be
near 95F across the urban corridor of NYC and NJ and upper 80s
elsewhere. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, this will yield
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s across the hottest locations.
Thereafter, the front passes through and Thursday/Friday are a bit
cooler, but still above average, in the mid to upper 80s.

Dry weather returns Friday and Saturday as another high builds into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front moves into the area late tonight into Monday
morning. High pressure builds in late on Monday.

Will continue a TEMPO group towards midnight for the city
terminals and a few hours later for the more eastern terminals,
although confidence is low, especially with exact timing and
placement. Some lower ceilings may briefly impact far eastern
terminals late in the overnight before the frontal passage.
Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of shwrs and tstms.

SSW flow gusting to around 25-30kt will become W early Mon and
weaken a bit. Winds then veer to the NW thru the day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing and coverage of convection thru tngt remains highly
uncertain.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
late  afternoon and at night, with MVFR or lower possible. SW wind
15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the coast.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible early with a chance of showers,
then VFR.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters but the NY
Harbor and western Sound. SW flow will continue to gust 25 to
30 kt into this evening and there may be occasional gusts to
gale force on the ocean. Ocean seas approach 6 to 9 ft late
tonight. A frontal passage overnight will allow winds, and
eventually seas, to subside on Monday. Seas likely still linger
at or above 5 ft into Monday evening before calming.

Winds and seas across all the forecast waters then remain below
advisory levels Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increasing southerly
winds ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday and Wednesday
night will allow for conditions on the oceans to approach SCA
levels. Ocean seas may remain near SCA levels through Thursday
as winds shift to west behind the cold front.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There is a chance for locally heavy rain from late day
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with a front moving
through.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A high rip current risk continues through Monday for all ocean
beaches mainly due to an energetic S swell. The risk lowers to
moderate on Tuesday as seas subside with an offshore wind
trajectory for much of the day.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR/DR
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/DBR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR/DR