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686
FXUS61 KPBZ 231805
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
205 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An active weather pattern is expected through most of the week
with a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Tuesday south of
Pittsburgh. Even with the clouds and threat of rain,
temperatures will remain warm through the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers along a passing cold front this afternoon.
- Dry period likely for most of the overnight.
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In the wake of the morning warm front passage, we`ve sat briefly in
the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front that will slowly
progress eastward through the region this afternoon. Most of the
deep moisture and best upper level support will be ahead of the
front, and satellite observations don`t indicate much in the way of
breaks in the clouds, so little atmospheric recovery will be
possible ahead of the cold front. With fumes of instability to work
with (hi res ensemble mean ~500-600 J/kg), won`t entirely rule out a
rumble of thunder, but this should largely take on a widely
scattered showers nature at most; additional accumulation will
be light with the highest chance for >0.10" in the ridges.

Behind the front, drier mid-level air works in and we should mostly
lose the precip chances with for most of the overnight, save the
higher elevations where upslope flow with lingering low-level
moisture may provide some drizzle. Some areas of fog and low stratus
are also on the table, especially where rain fell today, with
sufficient low-level saturation. With the cloud coverage and
elevated dew points, lows will fall to the low to mid 60s, some 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continue through mid-week.
- Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather on Tuesday.
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Height falls ensue on Tuesday as the shortwave ridging is shunted
east by a digging central CONUS trough. Another center of low
pressure, this one perhaps slightly deeper than Monday`s, and
associated shortwave energy will track just off to our west. This
will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Deep layer
southerly flow will advect in much higher, Gulf source moisture with
ensemble mean precipitable water values in excess of 1.5" which is
above the 90th percentile of climatology.

A look at forecast soundings shows a deep warm cloud layer to ~13kft
with high equilibrium levels and skinny CAPE. This favors efficient
rainfall producers with warm rain processes. In addition, CAMs
continue to hint at potential localized areas of higher totals with
convective enhancement, but this is lower confidence. Hi res
ensemble probability for >1" through Tuesday night does show strips
of up to 40%, so the potential is there. Probability for at least
0.5" is between 40-80%.

In addition, a lower probability severe threat is also a
possibility. How much instability we can generate will be in
question with morning cloud cover and showers, and there won`t be
much mid-level dry air to work with owing to the saturated profile.
Ensemble probability of >1000 J/kg of CAPE maximizes in the WV
Panhandle/southeast OH, and northern WV at 40-60%. With dew points
in the mid 60s and forecast highs in the low 70s, LCLs will be low
and CAMs all show a veering low level wind profile as 850 mb flow
increases by afternoon atop backed southeasterly surface flow. This
presents a lower probability, conditional tornado threat. Machine
learning also suggests a low end wind and tornado threat, and we
remain outlined in a Marginal Risk (1/5) from Pittsburgh south.

The initial digging trough is favored to cut off into a closed low
across the south-central CONUS with some uncertainty in the timing
and depth of a northern stream trough north of the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. Rain chances will continue with rounds of shortwave and
general troughiness in southwest flow. With generally weaker
forcing, 24 hour totals ending Thursday morning look on the
lighter side, mostly less than 0.5", though a much lower
probability solution with a deeper, phased trough exists with
higher amounts.

Temperatures through mid-week will be cooler owing to increased
cloud coverage and precipitation.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Uncertainty increases greatly for the latter half of the week with
  potential tropical low interaction.
- Rain chances will continue through the end of the week.
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A weak boundary may pass through the area sometime Thursday, but
seeing significant spread in the ensembles on the timing which will
impact when we lose the rain chances. Ensemble clusters exhibit
quite a bit of disagreement at this point with how the upper level
pattern evolves. The central CONUS trough may interact with the
remnants of now PTC 9 as it moves inland out of the Gulf. Meanwhile,
the northern stream trough will be sliding across the Northeast
states. Ensemble clusters all show that the remnants will be
absorbed by the trough but with much uncertainty after that.

The highest probability scenario at this time is that the northern
stream trough deflects the remnants off to our west and rain chances
here are lower. There are potential wetter solutions with a track
further east, but until we get a better idea on the evolution, will
stick with NBM given all of the uncertainty which advertises low end
rain chances into the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A slow moving cold front is currently situated just west of
ZZV. A number of sites have already fallen to IFR/MVFR/LIFR with
passing rain from our overnight disturbance. However, with
rainfall rates weak over the last 12 hours and dry air noted in
the PIT 00Z sounding with lingering across the region, creating
VFR conditions noted in some spots despite the rain showers.

Cigs are expected to bounce between VFR/MVFR/IFR between 14Z to 18Z
as warm air returns from the southwest with incoming disturbance
over Missouri.

Cigs are forecast to lift to VFR after 18Z, save DUJ and FKL,
but coverage is expected to remain broken.

Ample low moisture and reinforced saturation tomorrow night
likely means another night of at least MVFR restrictions are
ahead for most ports. More rain arrives Tuesday.

.Outlook...
Rain and restriction chance continues into Tuesday with another
low pressure center. Unsettled weather is then possible through
mid-week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Hefferan/Milcarek