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963
FXUS61 KPBZ 020717
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
317 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers expected today with crossing low pressure. The
next chance of widespread precipitation will arrive by midweek.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers spread across the region today. No Thunder.
- Cooler temperatures / increased cloud coverage
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Light showers will spread across the region this morning ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough, eventually pushing an
associated surface cold front through this evening. Opted to not
included any mention of thunder, as excessive cloud cover
should limit instability. The lack of strong forcing and
diminished upper support should result in more scattered
coverage, and some locations may see little to no rain.
Temperatures will be cooler today with less solar insolation.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather resumes this evening with shortwave ridging.

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Dry weather resumes tonight with the loss of daytime heating
and exiting of the shortwave. Any lingering overnight showers
will be confined to upslope Laurel Highland zones. The lack of
notable dry advection behind the system could make fog a
potential overnight impact, depending on the degree/quickness of
cloud clearing.

Dry conditions continue Monday with subtle ridging stretching
from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River
Valley. Temperatures will warm to above normal with increasing
heights.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower/storm chances increase for the second half of the work
  week.

- Temperatures will trend down as an upper low settles over the
  eastern CONUS.

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Continued dry conditions Tuesday under the influence of high
pressure will be followed by unsettled conditions the remainder
of the week with a crossing low pressure system and upper trough
settling in over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles suggest this
pattern is maintained through the upcoming weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The approach and passage of a weak upper level shortwave trough
will foster areas of light rain this morning that become more
scattered showers during the afternoon before it exits this
evening. Probability for lightning never exceeds 20 percent, and
thus no lightning is mentioned in TAFs.

VFR conditions are favoring at all terminals through 12z (8am),
with only 30 percent probability of MVFR conditions at KZZV.
After 12z, uncertainty increases in timing of potential
restrictions; ensemble probability never rises above 50 percent
for MVFR cigs at KPIT until the end of the TAF period while
deterministic guidance suggests an 16z onset and persistence
thereafter. The most likely outcome is periods of VFR mixed with
MVFR throughout the afternoon and evening hours.

Depending on boundary layer moisture and clearing of residual
stratocu, fog and/or low stratus may develop Monday morning.
However, variability on potential outcomes for that period
remains high.

.Outlook...
Upper riding and surface high pressure will support a return to
VFR conditions by Monday afternoon with a dissipating field of
diurnal cu.

The next low pressure system is favored to arrive Wednesday
afternoon and evening and promote fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...Rackley/88
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...Frazier