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117
FXUS65 KPUB 201727
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing moisture in the mtns will allow for numerous showers
  and tstorms today; locally heavy rain likely.

- A few storms will push over the plains later today, especially
  Pikes Peak Region (PPR).

- Heat returns today.

- Increased coverage and intensity of thunderstorms over and near
  the higher terrain on Friday.

- Above normal temperatures through the weekend with isolated to
  scattered afternoon showers and storms.

- Excessive heat possible across portions of southern Colorado
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Currently...

An area of rain with embedded thunder was pushing across the greater
Pikes Peak region with this activity extending back to the W-SW
across the northern San Luis Valley. Low clouds were noted over the
far eastern plains. Over the remainder of the plains partly cloudy
skies prevailed at 2 pm.

Today...

Main concern is increasing lower level moisture over the mtns today.
Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s are expected to become widespread over
the higher terrain today and this will allow for numerous showers
and tstorms over the mtns by afternoon. Best threat for locally
heavy rain will be the SW slopes of the San Juans as quality llvl
moisture will advect in from NM and impinge on the sw slopes of te
San Juans. West slopes of the Sangres may also become favored later
in the day and the old burn scars will have to be watched carefully
during the afternoon.

As for the plains, the heat returns and the 50s and 60s that we had
yesterday afternoon will be replaced by 80s and 90s across the lower
elevations.

Best chance of storms over the plains today will be over the lower
elevations of the Pikes Peak Region. Storms are not expected to be
all that strong and gusty winds will be the main concern.

Tonight...

With plenty of lower level moisture over the mtns, shower and storms
will continue through the night, with the overall best chance of
activity remaining over the CONTDVD, especially the SW mtns.
Otherwise, storms along the mtns/plains interface and over the
plains should end by early to mid evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Friday-Friday night...Upper trough continues to translate across
the Rockies through Friday night, with ample moisture and orographic
flow likely keeping scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
ongoing over and near the Continental Divide early Friday morning.
Increasing uvv and steep lapse rates associated with the passing
system will allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage through the day, with storms spreading northeast across the
higher terrain and into the I-25 Corridor Friday afternoon and early
evening. There could also be a few storms possible further east
across the Plains Friday evening associated with the passing systems
front pushing south across the plains. Latest models continue to
suggest enough cape and shear, especially west of the Front Range,
to support a few stronger storms producing marginally severe winds
and hail, along with enough subtropical moisture to support locally
heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding, especially for
area burn scars. Temperatures across southeast Colorado are expected
to warm into the 80s to lower 90s through the end of the work week,
with temperatures over and near the higher terrain at to slightly
cooler than seasonal, with expected increased convection.

Saturday-Sunday...Warmer and drier west to northwest flow develops
across the region through the upcoming weekend, with upper level
ridging building back across the southern Rockies. This will allow
for temperatures to warm to above seasonal levels areawide, with
enough residual moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon
and evening showers and storms, with the best coverage over and near
the higher terrain.

Monday-Wednesday...Southern Rockies upper level ridging builds into
the Central Rockies through early next week, with excessive heat
possible as H5 heights approach 595DM and H7 temps approach 20C,
leading to highs returning to well above seasonal levels in the mid
90s to around 105F across the southeast Plains. There could be
enough moisture to support isolated higher based afternoon showers,
mainly over the higher terrain, into early next week.

Latest model data does indicate increased chances of showers and
storms along with cooler temperatures across eastern Colorado for
later next week, as energy topping the ridge across the Northern
Rockies and into the Northern High Plains sends moisture back across
the eastern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

While conditions will remain VFR, thunderstorms developing over
the mountains may move off into the adjacent lower elevations
affecting the TAF sites this afternoon and overnight. Will carry
VCTS in all three TAFS beginning around 20-21z with the best
chance through 01z. Gusty erratic outflow winds, heavy rainfall
with brief MVFR conditions and small hail will be possible with
the stronger storms, though these should be outliers with a
lower probability of impacting the TAF sites. Gusty outflow
winds will likely affect afternoon and evening wind directions
with gusts up to 40 kts possible. Winds will become more steady
southerly overnight with another round of -SHRA/-TSRA late.
Odds are greatest at KALS after 06z. KCOS could see some VCSH
overnight though confidence is lower as it is less likely to be
persistent. Cigs at KALS could drop into the MVFR category
overnight as waves of rain move up from the south. -KT
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT