-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
454
FXUS62 KRAH 222353
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A back-door cold front will move through central NC through this
evening, then stall and waver over SC and southwestern NC Monday
through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Sunday...

Satellite imagery shows the area of low-stratus just to the north-
northeast of the Triangle, where it has persisted since this
morning, albeit slowly eroding with time. A scattered to broken cu
field has developed over the remainder of central NC this afternoon.
The area of stratus has created a significant differential heating
boundary, with temperatures only reaching the low 70s under it and
mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Highs may top out around 90 degrees in
the west and south, while under the stratus and where it lingers
through sunset, highs will struggle to reach the mid 70s. The
surface pressure trough that moved southward through the area today
has settled south of the area as of 3 PM, with the backdoor cold
front draped across the area from the Triad through the Sandhills
and far srn Coastal Plain. Some hi-res guidance still shows the
chance for an isolated shower, mainly over the southern Coastal
Plain/Sandhills ahead of the front this evening, and possibly over
the far northeast Coastal Plain. Otherwise the weather should be dry
through midnight.

Tonight, in the wake of the backdoor cold front, cool surface high
pressure will ridge sswwd into the area. Low clouds/stratus will
develop over the nrn Coastal Plain/ northeast Piedmont around
midnight, spreading quickly and covering all of central NC by Mon
morning. Despite low-level thicknesses some 10m lower in the NE than
last night, with the expansive cloud cover lows may be a couple/few
degrees higher tonight. Lows should range from mid/upper 60s SW to
upper 50s/60 degrees NE. Additionally, some showers could still move
into/clip the northwest Piedmont late tonight/early Mon morn as a
weak mid/upper disturbance riding the sub-topical ridge slides into
the area. There may also be some isentropic lift over the western
Piedmont (which shows up on the 300K sfc off the 12Z NAM) that may
result in some drizzle/light rain around daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 PM Sunday...

A ridge accompanying a sub-tropical, 500 mb anticyclone along the
Gulf coast will progress across the Southeast through 12Z Tue, with
associated anticyclonic flow across cntl NC. Meanwhile, convectively-
perturbed, wswly to swly flow will be directed from the lwr MS
Valley to the OH Valley and cntl Appalachians, downstream of a
synoptic shortwave trough that will deamplify across the cntl Plains
and mid MS Valley.

At the surface, the backdoor cold front now progressing through cntl
NC will stall over w-cntl SC early Mon, then retreat nwd into the
srn NC Piedmont Mon afternoon-night. High pressure centered over
Atlantic Canada will otherwise extend swwd across the Northeast and
middle Atlantic, including ern and e-cntl NC.

Widespread low overcast will likely have developed over most of cntl
NC by daybreak Mon. This post-frontal, low overcast may be
accompanied by patchy light rain and drizzle over the nw Piedmont
through the morning, in the upslope regime there where point
forecast soundings depict saturation in the lowest 1000-2000 ft. The
early day clouds will lift and at least partially clear, especially
away from the nw Piedmont, with afternoon warming into the mid/upr
70s north to lwr 80s south. Low-level moisture pooling along and on
the immediate cool side of the surface front will favor weak to
moderate diurnal destabilization, strongest across the srn Piedmont
and Sandhills. There remains a signal in model guidance for an area
of showers and storms to move into the srn and wrn NC Piedmont
during the late afternoon-evening, with a risk of a strong storm or
two over the srn Piedmont, where both instability and
unidirectional, wnwly flow are forecast to maximize. A chance of
showers, and generally weaker storms, should then spread ewd through
the night, as PWs increase to between 1.75-2" and support continued
weak instability. Widespread low overcast should otherwise redevelop
in an unseasonably moist/humid regime, with low temperatures in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 248 PM Sunday...

The frontal boundary from Mon is likely to linger across the western
and southern Piedmont early Tue, before slowly shifting northward on
Wed. Aloft, models are showing an impulse of energy tied to a
shortwave in the OH valley tracking across the region in the SW flow
aloft. Morning stratus across the region is likely to also set up a
differential heating boundary as it slowly erodes over the southern
Piedmont and Sandhills, with highs mid 70s NE to mid 80s SW. While
SPC does not have us outlooked, models are showing MLCAPE between
1000-1500 J/kg with deep-layer shear of 30-35 kts, focused over the
southern Piedmont. This could pose a non-zero severe threat. As a
result, guidance is fairly high on shower/storm chances. Morning
showers are possible in the NE, but aftn/eve convection is favored
to develop first in the west/southern Piedmont and track ENE in the
evening to overnight.

By Wed, the surface boundary is largely favored to lift into VA as a
warm front. A cold front will be weakening to our west in the OH
Valley. Highest storm chances Wed will be over the NW in closer
proximity to the northward moving front and mid-level energy,
focused in the afternoon and evening with diurnal heating. Highs
should trend warmer than average in the upper 70s N to mid 80s S.

Thu to Sun: The overall synoptic pattern and potential impacts from
what develops in the Gulf remains uncertain. While the latest
deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and CMC show decent agreement that the
potential tropical system forecast to develop in the Gulf (80-
percent now from NHC) will get pull northward by troughing over the
mid to lower MS valley sometime late Thu or Fri over the SE US,
their respective ensembles still show a large spread in possible
scenarios. As a result, confidence on expected impacts from heavy
rainfall or gusty winds late this week to weekend, remain low. Where
the tropical system tracks ultimately will depend on the location of
the trough in the midsection of the country, as well as the ridge
off the SE coast, and whether any blocking sets up over the Great
Lakes or northern Great Plains. The inland landfall could be as far
west as the coast of AL or as far east as NE florida, per the ECENS
00z low tracks. For now, we have highest PoPs late Thu into Sat of
30-40 percent, decreasing to 20 percent by late in the weekend Sun.
This is likely to change, however, as models come into better
agreement in the coming days. Consequently, temperatures are also
uncertain, but for now are favored to be near or slightly below
average in the mid/upper 70s to around 80 Fri-Sun.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 751 PM Sunday...

Post-frontal light nely flow will persist tonight. All terminals
will begin VFR this evening, but widespread MVFR/IFR stratus will
quickly spread from northeast to southwest tonight.  Ceilings will
likely further dip to LIFR late tonight/early Monday morning.
Additional patchy fog may promote reduced visibilities early Monday
morning through about sunrise.  Northern terminals will likely
remain socked in through much of Monday afternoon (KFAY may lift to
VFR by early to mid afternoon).

Precipitation wise, some light drizzle/patchy light rain may reach
KINT/KGSO early Monday morning. Additional showers and storms may
approach KINT/KGSO near the end of the 24 hr TAF period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions expected each day, with the exception
of sub-VFR fog/stratus each morning. There is a chance for mainly
afternoon/evening showers/tstms each day, which could result in
periods of sub-VFR conditions where/when they occur.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Luchetti/KC