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599
FXUS62 KRAH 150747
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 347 AM Tuesday...

Isolated flash flooding will be possible this afternoon and
evening with the region in a marginal (level 1 of 4 risk) of
excessive rainfall.

Antecedent wet ground will result in easier and quicker flash flood
potential with the heavier downpours, especially over the western
and northern Piedmont.

The Triad area appears most vulnerable to potential isolated flash
flooding this afternoon and evening. Even though all of our region
is in the marginal risk of excessive rainfall, the NW Piedmont has
the higher probabilities of additional thunderstorms today per most
guidance and the latest CAMS. This region is also the wettest with
the past few days bringing plenty of heavy rain events. Greensboro
was already approaching 8 inches of rain for the month and it is not
even half over yet. This is already double the monthly 30 year
average. In addition, Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop again this afternoon and linger well into the evening. The
focus will be on the western and northern Piedmont locations where
basin averages of around 1 inch can be expected QPF wise. However,
some locations will likely top 2-3 inches locally. This would
produce additional flash flooding. The heaviest rains are not
expected to be widespread, limiting the potential scope of the flash
flooding to mainly localized or urban areas. To the east and south,
widely scattered storms are expected with locally 1+ inch of rain.
The instability is expected to be less today than in previous days
limiting the severe damaging wind threat. However, an isolated
damaging wind gust with the stronger cores. Highs will generally be
87-92. Lows tonight should be 70-75.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north on Wednesday with the upper ridge building in the
southeast U.S. from off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the
convection to widely scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities
will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along
the Blue Ridge. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with partly to
mostly sunny afternoon skies (90-95). Lows generally in the lower to
mid 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 236 PM Monday...

* Central NC weather through the Wed-Fri period will be dominated by
  ridging aloft extending across our area from the western Atlantic.
  The result will be at or perhaps even slightly below climo diurnal
  PoPs and above normal temps.
* The primary triggering mechanism for daytime shower/tstm activity
  will be the Piedmont trough and outflow boundaries.
* The ridge will erode some over the weekend as a series of short
  waves pass by to our north, thus look for increased diurnal
  shower/tstm coverage this weekend into early next week.
* The primary hazards during the long term will be heat-related Wed-
  Fri, then more in the way of lighting and heavy downpours for Sat-
  Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms may persist over portions of the region
through 09z-11z, before finally dying off. The GSO/INT areas and
possibly RDU will have the higher chances of showers/storms.
Otherwise, generally VFR conditions will give way to the development
of IFR to LIFR stratus at many locations. This stratus will lift out
between 12z and 14z. Expect another chance of showers/storms this
afternoon and evening, with the higher probabilities from the Triad
to the Triangle between 18z and 05z.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...petro
AVIATION...Badgett/CBL