-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
780
FXUS61 KAKQ 201730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
130 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain north of the region while low pressure
remains well offshore. A backdoor cold front potentially drops
back south across the region Saturday. High pressure builds north
of the area this weekend into early next week leading to generally
dry conditions. A cold front potentially approaches by the middle
to later portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Patchy fog possible this morning.

-Pleasant today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper
 70s-low 80s.

An area of sfc low pressure, along with an UL low, remain situated
off the Northeast coast this morning with high pressure
(centered to the N) in place over the local area. Skies have
cleared out over much of the area, but some mid level stratus is
hanging on over the SW corner of the FA. Calm to light winds
combined with the moisture from the rain over the last couple of
days has allowed for fog formation where the skies have
cleared. While this has mostly been patchy so far, a few of the
latest obs do indicate denser spots in the NW and near the VA/NC
border. Fog should clear up within an hour or two of sunrise.
Lows this morning will be in the low 60s. Expecting a pleasant
day today with highs in the in the low 80s for much of the area.
Continued onshore flow will keep temps in the mid-upper 70s
closer to the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny. Lows tonight
will be on either side of 60. With mostly clear skies and calm
to light winds, could see another round of morning fog Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers or isolated storms possible Saturday evening into Saturday
night.

- Cooler and mainly dry Sunday.

Pleasant weather continues into Sat with high pressure still in
place over the NE CONUS and low pressure offshore slowly drifting S.
Aloft, NW flow will remain in place over the local area with a broad
ridge to the W and low pressure offshore. Highs will be around 80.
CLoud cover will gradually increase from NW to SE as a shortwave
approaches, traveling down the ridge. To add to that, a backdoor
front will drop S into the area Sat night. Day-time hours look to
remain mostly dry Sat, though could see a showers enter to the NW
counties later in the afternoon. The scattered showers (and a
few rumbles of thunder) then cross through the area Sat evening/night
with highest PoPs (45-55%) staying N of I-64. Mostly cloudy
skies will hang on across the NE half of the area for much of
Sun. Not expecting much in the way of precip, but cannot rule
out a stray shower near the coast with the UL trough in the
vicinity. Temps will range from the low 70s in the NE on the
Eastern Shore to around 80 in the SW. Lows Sun night will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, overall pleasant weather Monday.

- Gradually warming temps expected by the midweek, with low-end
precipitation chances potentially returning.

Sfc high pressure centered well to the N of the area will continue
to wedge itself down the east coast Mon as low pressure well
offshore drifts further S. Thicknesses will increase as a ridge
aloft slides east toward the coast through mid-week. Monday will be
pleasant with highs in the mid 70s and partly sunny skies. Gusty
onshore winds will keep areas immediately along the coast a couple
of degrees cooler. Lows Mon night will be around 60. Precip chances
potentially inch back up by Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a
quick-moving shortwave ejects out of the Midwest, likely interacting
with the next deep-layer trough coming out of the nrn US and Canada.
00z deterministic guidance shows several waves of precip
associated with various smaller-scale disturbances. Timing these
disturbances is difficult at this lead time and given
associated spread across the ensemble guidance, will remain near
or slightly above NBM PoPs during this period. This yields chc
PoPs Tuesday aftn across the W, with 30-40% PoPs for most of the
area Wednesday into Thurs with the parent cold front. Sky cover
averages partly-mostly cloudy. Temps Tues-Thurs will be similar
each day with mid 70s in the NW to upper 70s-around 80 in the
SE. Forecast overnight lows are around 60 Monday night, and
lower 60s Tuesday/Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Standard afternoon SCT-BKN040-060 CU has developed for most of the
area. Expect that to dissipate closer to sunset as we lose the
daytime heating. Could see another round of fog overnight resulting
in patchy IFR conditions near terminals. Kept it as a mention of 3SM
at RIC and PHF for now where confidence is a little higher, but
would expect lower VIS and possibly more terminals to be included in
the impacts with the next TAF issuance. Conditions improve after
12-14z Saturday. Winds are generally E/NE at 5-10kt this
afternoon, then becoming 5kt or less tonight.

Generally VFR conditions expected for most of the day on
Saturday, however, rain and storm chances return to western
locations later in the afternoon and evening hours after this
TAF period ends.

Outlook: Rain and storm chances expected during the evening
hours of Saturday, potentially impacting terminals with lower
VIS. Best chances as of now are for RIC and points west.
Activity may linger into the overnight period. Coastal spots
could see showers to start Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all coastal waters
  from later today extended through Sunday.

- Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed in the
  Bay/lower James later this weekend.

- Winds increase Sunday with persistent long period swells
  keeping seas elevated into the middle of next week.

Sfc low pressure (~1003mb) lingers well off the NJ coast, with
high pressure centered across New Foundland/Labrador. The
stronger pressure gradient remains offshore today, with NW winds
shifting to the NE later today, but remaining in the 10-15kt
range (or less). Seas build to 4-5 ft N later this morning,
eventually spreading S by late aftn/evening. Have added SCAs for
the coastal waters S of Parramore down to NE NC so all coastal
waters are now under headlines.

The latest model trends are a bit slower and weaker with respect
to the sfc high building S into the local waters this weekend.
There is still a decent surge of NE winds expected on Sunday,
but winds may be too marginal for headlines outside of the
lower Bay/mouth of the Bay. Winds over coastal waters look to be
15-20 kt with gusts to 25kt. Building swell combined with
elevated winds should allow seas to build to 5-7 ft in the N and
4-6 ft S Sunday-Monday. A slow improvement is expected Tue-
Wed, though SCAs for seas are still probable through midweek
given the long period easterly swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Tidal departures are fairly uniform across the entire area,
generally from +1.0 to +1.5 ft above astro tide levels. With
rather high astro tides given the full moon cycle as well as the
typical higher autumn tides, these departures have been enough
to lead to widespread minor flooding over the past few days.
Over the next 24-48 hrs, the onshore flow will persist with sfc
low pressure lingering well offshore and high pressure over
eastern Canada nosing a bit to the south into the weekend.
Indications are for tidal departures to increase into the +1.5
to up to +2.0 ft range by later Saturday through Sunday
(potentially continuing through the middle of next week). It is
still a bit uncertain, but there is enough confidence at seeing
moderate flooding into the mid/upper Bay as well as Va Beach and
Currituck NC by later Saturday to issue a Coastal Flood Watch
w/ this package. Subsequent shifts may need to extend this out
through Sunday since that will likely be at least comparable if
not slightly higher than what occurs Saturday aftn/evening. It
will also be close to moderate flooding at a few sites on the
VA eastern shore. Have held off on any Watches in these areas
for now, but have extended Coastal Flood Advisories through at
least Saturday aftn for all remaining zones.

In addition, a High rip current risk is in effect today and will
be in effect Saturday as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ076-078-
     085-098-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late
     Saturday night for VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ083-084-
     086-089-090-093-095>097-099-100-518-520-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ654-656-658.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM/SW
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...