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853
FXUS62 KILM 200648
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
248 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon across
southeast North Carolina, but the chances don`t amount to much.
Forecast dries out completely just in time for the weekend, with
high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above
seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain
chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next
frontal system.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Elongated surface high to the west extending north gradually expands
east today. Aloft the 5h trough axis that was overhead Thu lingers
just offshore with 5h ridging centered over TX and northern Mexico.
The ridging aloft will slowly drift east, but the trough axis
remains close enough that an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm
is possible, mainly across North Carolina. The bulk of the region
will remain dry, but rain chances are not zero. The loss of surface
based instability in the evening and lack of any support aloft will
bring a quick end to any convection that is able to develop in the
afternoon. Drier mid-level air and subsidence associated with the 5h
ridge start to spread east late tonight, clearing much of the cloud
cover out. Decreasing low level moisture and an increase in
northeast winds in the boundary layer tonight will prevent fog
development in most areas Sat morning. Temperatures will run a
little above climo with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in
the mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Quiet forecast period here. A massive upper ridge centered over
Mexico and the Texas Gulf coast stretches eastward into the
Southeast through Sunday night. Meanwhile, at the surface, high
pressure near the Ohio River Valley gradually pushes eastward
towards the mid-Atlantic. This amounts to a dry forecast throughout
the weekend. Highs Saturday in the low-to-mid 80s.

More continental flow sneaks in below 700 mb, which allows highs
Sunday to shoot up into the upper 80s across the SC Pee Dee region.
A weak cold front pushes through the mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon,
but is too far north to have much of an influence this far south.
Still, it may result in a few extra clouds over southeast NC Sunday
afternoon, which may keep the highs in the low-to-mid 80s there.
Some guidance wants to inject just enough moisture in there to
squeeze out a shower or two over the NC coastal plain, but I`m
holding off on the idea for now.

Lows each night in the mid-to-upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Forecast still looks pretty quiet through Tuesday night, with high
pressure in control. Highs remain in the mid 80s each day. Lows in
the mid 60s.

Things will try to get a bit more interesting Wednesday and Thursday
ahead of a frontal system. Looks like a upper low ejects out of the
Upper Midwest or Canada and spins through the Great Lakes region or
the Ohio River Valley. Forecast guidance is messy with this system,
but the current forecast suggests the surface front gets here by
Thursday. Changing in the timing is almost a given, since we`re
several days out. At any rate, modest rain chances on the rise
Wednesday and Thursday. Extra cloud cover may limit the highs in the
lower 80s, with lows remaining in the mid 60s.

Of course, tropical mischief soon to be brewing in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea may throw a wrench into the system. Speaking of messy
forecast guidance....not much to say on the trends at the moment.
We`ll see how this changes in time. NHC still carries a 40% chance
of formation through the next week as the low travels into the
southern GOMEX.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Boundary layer winds and lingering low level moisture will once
again lead to low confidence TAFs this morning. Short periods
of MVFR/IFR are possible for the next few hours. Thus far only
low cloud development has occurred along the NC coast, but
expect to see some development across inland areas during the
next few hours. Also expect to see some MVFR fog develop at
inland sites, but varying cloud cover and boundary layer winds
should keep visibility mostly above IFR.

Widespread VFR shortly after daybreak with any fog or low
stratus mixing out. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible, mainly coastal NC, but coverage will be rather sparse
and not warrant inclusion within the TAFs. Northeast winds
continue today with speeds under 7 kt. Cannot rule out sporadic
MVFR around 06Z tonight, but increasing dry air and a slight
bump in boundary layer wind speeds will limit potential.

Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early
morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Tonight...Northeast winds continue through tonight as
elongated surface high lingers to the west. Gradient remains
unchanged today become a little more defined tonight. Winds
10-15 kt for the next 24 hours or so, but on the higher end of
the range later tonight. Seas 3-4 ft north of Frying Pan Shoals
with seas 2-3 ft south of the Shoals today increasing to 3-4 ft
tonight. Seas will be a mix of easterly swell and northeast wind
wave, with the northeast wind wave becoming the dominant wave
later today.

Saturday through Tuesday...Northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts
build in more of an easterly onshore component by Saturday
afternoon. Varying wind direction Sunday and Monday, before
becoming easterly again by Tuesday. Speeds decrease to around 10
kts at this point. Seas mostly 2-3 ft, with a few 4 ft waves
spotted 20 nm from shore Saturday.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides and NE flow continue the coastal flood
threat through the weekend. WLON7 made it to moderate flooding
Thursday, and looks like it will happen again around midday
today. Continuing the Coastal Flood Watch for both sides of the
lower Cape Fear River this morning. Technically a warning is
need at this point, but plan to hold off issuing the warning
until around 0700 EDT given that the entire counties do not need
to hear a tone alert at 0200 EDT for a product affecting a
small portion of the county. Otherwise, mainly expecting only
minor flooding for the other high tide cycles, as well as for
the beaches where Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     afternoon for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III