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311
FXUS62 KILM 111415
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1015 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier high pressure will bring mainly rain-free and
increasingly warmer weather through mid week. Even warmer
temperatures are then likely late week ahead of a cold front
which should bring a bit cooler and drier weather again early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor updates to the forecast this morning; everything
remains on track.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure will build down over the Carolinas through
midweek. Mid to upper trough moving over the east coast early today
will shift offshore by this afternoon. Any shortwave energy rotating
around this trough enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across
the coastal waters will remain mainly south and east of the local
area and will get pushed farther east with subsidence and dry air
building in. Soundings show some instability through early aftn but
then decent subsidence inversion develops and should put a cap on
any convection. Left in some iso convection associated with sea
breeze convergence although models do not show any. There will be
some weak troughiness as winds come around to the E-SE this
afternoon in sea breeze and should see some aftn cu flattening out.
Will not completely discount a localized shwr developing, but
overall, should be a rain free period. Light northerly winds will
come around to the E-SE remaining light as center of high migrates
toward the Mid- Atlantic coast through tonight. Will have to
evaluate further for fog tonight but right now looks like a low
chance.

Temps will be right around normal with mid to upper 80s for highs
and mid 60s for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:of the period, but sub-VFR and possibly
down to IFR for FLO in fog toward daybreak but dissipating
shortly thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms should remain
south and east of all terminals overnight i
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A surface front looks to generally remain stalled south and
east of the area through the period with drier high pressure inland.
Meanwhile, there seems to be a bit more model support for a weak low
pressure system developing along the front offshore but it should
have no significant direct impacts locally. We expect minimal rain
chances, mostly near the coast where moisture convergence will be a
bit greater. Temps should mostly be near to above normal, especially
by Thursday when it should reach the lower 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
*Very low risk for significant weather

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details: Weak low pressure could be located offshore to start the
period before shifting farther off to the northeast Friday night as
a cold front approaches with no significant direct impacts expected.
The front should move through Saturday and Saturday night with
slightly cooler and drier air filtering in behind it into early next
week. Rain chances should remain minimal through the period, but
generally highest near the coast. Temps should be above normal
through Saturday prior to the cold frontal passage and then return
back a bit closer to normal thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. Winds will remain very light out of the north becoming
onshore as high pressure builds in, but will trend more
southeasterly through the afternoon as sea breeze develops with
some afternoon cu around and after 19Z. Some isolated showers
could develop near coastal terminals. The center of the high
migrates toward the Mid- Atlantic coast tonight maintaining S
flow.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day, with fog possible most
nights through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Benign marine conditions will exist through
tonight as high pressure builds over the waters. Light northerly
winds will come around to the E as sea breeze develops this
afternoon and center of high shifts toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Seas will remain less than 3 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday...A cold front should stall southeast of
the area with at least one weak low pressure possibly developing
along it. Another cold front should move through over the weekend,
although winds/seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/RGZ